华侨银行每日国债展望（2026年9月25日）

关键论点

• 能源冲击推动多家央行转向紧缩：挪威加息，瑞典释放加息信号，英国央行两位副行长偏鹰，美联储官员亦保留进一步紧缩可能。
• 美国数据保持稳健，初请失业金人数低至19.7万，新屋销售增长6.4%，强化加息预期。
• 尽管债市遭遇抛售，市场仍显韧性：股市基本持平，布伦特原油大涨3.4%，黄金下跌0.5%。
• 美伊就重开霍尔木兹海峡举行谈判的报道短暂提振风险情绪，但重大障碍依然存在。

对应原文证据

1. However, Dhingra remained more cautious, noting that price increases were less broad-based than in 2022 and the labour market was weaker.Fed officials also kept the door open to further tightening, with Anna Paulson and John Williams signalling that another rate increase may be appropriate. · 2022
2. Credit Headlines: • Deutsche Bank AG (DB): Announced a USD103mn exposure to Radiant World and a likely 3Q2026 provision; overall loan quality and provisions are expected to remain stable, while 3Q2026 Investment Banking performance is expected to be flat or slightly lower y/y.
3. • ING Groep (INTNED): Raised its 2027 ROE target to above 16%, revenue guidance to above EUR26bn and reduced its cost target to approximately EUR13bn, while completing around 78% of its EUR1bn share buyback. · 2027