每周经济评论 · 活动保持韧性，通胀暗流涌动

关键论点

• 新西兰经济活动具韧性：填充岗位同比+0.9%；农业驱动坎特伯雷（+1.9%）、奥塔哥（+1.5%）、南地（+3.1%）增长，而奥克兰（+0.6%）和惠灵顿（+0.4%）滞后。
• 通胀压力集中在对利率不敏感的经济领域；6月扣除食品和燃料的通胀为2.9%，已连续五年接近或高于3%。
• 西太平洋银行预测新西兰联储将于2026年12月加息25个基点，明年OCR峰值达4%；通胀至少在2027年中前保持在3%以上。
• 纽元贸易加权汇率自9月初下跌约4%，较新西兰联储9月货币政策声明假设低约4%；纽元兑澳元升至0.8110，预计随OCR上升而上涨。

对应原文证据

1. 1 Westpac New Zealand Economics Resilient activity and simmering inflation While bumpy and uneven, New Zealand’s economic recovery has continued over the past few months, with activity showing resilience in the face of continued global headwinds.
2. The average price of 91 unleaded has risen by nearly 50 c/litre – albeit late in the month and likely not fully reflected in surveyed confidence – taking it back to the levels seen during the early stages of the Middle East conflict.
3. Inflation expectations were steady in September’s household and business surveys.