完整报告

关键论点

• 美国增长保持韧性但日益分化：低收入家庭承受能源驱动的通胀压力，高收入家庭和企业则受益于税收政策、去监管和人工智能资本开支。
• 美国财政轨迹恶化：赤字结构性接近GDP的6%，债务超40万亿美元，净利息支出到2036年将翻倍；市场正逐步重估主权风险。
• 大华银行维持看空美元基准（DXY 2026年四季度98.6，至2027年三季度95.2），但将9月美联储加息列为主要风险，可能使该判断失效。
• 央行购金和财政担忧或使黄金在4000美元/盎司附近筑底，但美债收益率高企限制短期反弹；布伦特原油预测全线上调10美元/桶。

对应原文证据

1. While the pace of expansion was below expectations at 1.5% q/q SAAR in 2Q, it was still a fifth consecutive quarter of growth anchored by private consumption and business spending, driven overwhelmingly by AI-related investments.
2. We expect the positive growth momentum to continue into 2H this year, albeit at a slower pace although the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNOW is projecting a materially better growth of 4.7% in 3Q (as of 3 Sep). · this year
3. Our more conservative outlook is premised on softer domestic demand as lower‑income households face mounting pressure from elevated energy ‑ induced inflation and spending challenges amidst lingering tariff effects.