应对长期高利率环境

关键论点

• 美国10年期收益率上升100个基点主要由实际收益率驱动；盈亏平衡通胀率仅较年初走阔约10个基点，因此通胀预期若固化可能推高名义收益率。
• 与金融危机前2%-4%通胀和稳健增长的环境相比，当前利率水平可能更接近正常，而非过去15年的极低利率环境。
• 收益率曲线可能没有看起来那么有吸引力：2年/10年利差对6个月国库券利率的回归显示，曲线较2000-2008年公允价值平坦约25个基点。
• 在央行利率见顶后，长久期策略未能持续跑赢，因为2024-2025年宽松周期中的曲线陡峭化侵蚀了长久期债券回报。

对应原文证据

1. Higher sovereign bond yields have increased the income available to investors, but the additional yield further out the curve may not fully compensate for the risks of extending duration.
2. With US markets pricing at least a further three 25 bp rate increases by mid-2027 and the 10-year/10-year forward rate at its highest level since the early 2000s, the case for adding duration may appear compelling. · 2027
3. If inflation expectations were to become more embedded and breakevens widen, this could push nominal yields still higher.