美国利率策略日报 · 宏观信号恶化与美联储的转向

关键论点

• CPI与失业率之差作为泰勒规则的月度代理指标已逾40年，并曾领先于美联储历次加息与降息周期。
• 当前通胀与失业率的组合意味着规则一致的美联储适当政策利率正在上升。
• SMBC经济团队据此认为，应在9月加息25个基点之后进一步加息。
• 该团队在春夏两季的报告中（5月24日、6月24日、8月3日、8月5日）已提示美联储可能加息。

对应原文证据

1. US Rates Strategy Daily September 21, 2026 Troy Ludtka, US Economics troy.ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212-224-5483 Worsening Macro Signal and the Fed ’s Pivot In the Spring and Summer, we flagged the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would hike rates due to the worsening inflation outlook (see our notes from May 24, June 24, August 3, and August 5). · 2026
2. Particularly, we are tracking the difference between the consumer price index and the unemployment rate, which has been a monthly proxy for Taylor Rule estimates of the appropriate federal funds rate for more than 40 years and has preceded past Fed hiking and easing cycles.