美国利率策略日报 · 再访V/U比值

关键论点

• 劳动力需求在2025年末触底，并于2026年显著反弹，而工资增长呈线性减速，表明就业市场正在走软。
• 初步迹象显示劳动力需求与工资增长之间的缺口可能正在收窄，工资增长与劳动力需求更趋一致。
• 亚特兰大联储工资增长中位数系列在8月同比回升至4.1%。
• 若该模式在其它工资指标中更广泛显现，则经济中一个关键的通缩压力来源将从美联储的利率决策考量中移除。

对应原文证据

1. Labor demand — proxied by the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers — hit a hard bottom in late 2025 before rebounding markedly this year, while estimates of wage growth continued to decelerate linearly, which generally indicates a softening job market. · 2025
2. Early indications, however, suggest this gap may be closing with wage growth better aligning with labor demand (shown below), as the Atlanta Fed’s median wage growth series has reaccelerated to 4.1% y/y (August).
3. Should this pattern become more broadly evident across other wage measures, a key source of economy-wide disinflationary pressure would be removed from t he Fed’s rate -setting calculus.