拉美周报：巴西大选结果、地区CPI、BCRP利率决议全球经济学

关键论点

• 巴西大选结果及卢拉与博索纳罗的差距将主导周一市场反应；若票差比民调更接近，巴西资产可能因亲商政府概率上升而上涨。
• 预计智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥和巴西9月通胀上升0.1-0.3个百分点；哥伦比亚央行此前意外加息25个基点至12.25%。
• Scotiabank预计秘鲁央行将维持利率4.25%不变，因月度物价涨幅符合或低于历史均值，12个月通胀预期为3.09%。
• 秘鲁有望连续第二年实现GDP的1.8%财政赤字目标，截至8月12个月赤字为GDP的1.0%；墨西哥正规就业降温。

对应原文证据

1. • In today’s report, the team in Peru covers fiscal developments in the country with an expectation that the government will meet its fiscal deficit target of 1.8% for the second consecutive year, while our economists in Mexico go over the latest formal employment data that point to a cooling in hiring.
2. • In today’s report, the team in Peru covers fiscal developments in the country with an expectation that the government will me et its fiscal deficit target of 1.8% for the second consecutive year, while our economists in Mexico go over the latest formal employment data that point to a cooling in hiring.
3. G10 schedules are a bit quieter than usual (Canadian employment a nd the Fed’s minutes are the standouts), which should give local Latam markets more room to trade on local determinants on top of the broad global market mood that remains highly attentive to energy markets and steep increases in borrowing rates.