预测表

GLOBAL ECONOMICS

Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com SCOTIABANK FORECAST July 13, 2026

Contributors

Olivier Gervais Director, Modelling and Forecasting Scotiabank Economics 416.288.7836 olivier.gervais@scotiabank.com

Patrick Perrier Director of Forecasting Scotiabank Economics 416.866.4733 patrick.perrier@scotiabank.com

Farah Omran Senior Economist Scotiabank Economics 416.866.4315 farah.omran@scotiabank.com

Scotiabank Forecast: Inflation Pressures to Keep Central

Banks Cautious

• Our outlook is broadly unchanged from the June forecast, and incoming data have strengthened our confidence in the underlying narrative.
• Canada: Recent data have evolved broadly in line with our expectations and continue to support the view that the economy is moving out of the soft patch seen at the start of the year. Despite the volatile situation in the Middle East, oil prices are lower than in our previous forecast, weighing modestly on the near -term outlook, particularly through business investment and total CPI inflation. However, the weaker Canadian dollar broadly offsets that drag by providing support to exports.
• United States: The story is similar, near -term activity looks slightly stronger than previously expected, partly reflecting weaker import growth. Inflation has continued to surprise to the upside in both headline and core measures, reinforcing the case for caution from the Fed.

我们的展望与6月份的预测基本一致，反映了自上次更新以来一系列相互抵消的事态发展。金融市场持续波动，油价下跌，加元走弱。与此同时，新公布的加拿大数据在很大程度上印证了我们在6月份报告中概述的动态，表明经济正开始摆脱近期的疲软阶段。我们认为通胀风险仍然偏高，这应会使加拿大央行保持谨慎，并最终引导政策利率在今年年底前后开始逐步正常化（图表1）。在美国，尽管家庭需求预计将放缓，但经济活动继续表现出韧性，招聘势头温和，实际工资增长停滞。与此同时，通胀的持续性超过预期，促使美联储对潜在的利率变动采取谨慎态度。

油价在6月份大幅下跌，随后地缘政治紧张局势在7月份再次推高油价。即使在反弹之后，油价仍远低于我们6月份预测中所隐含的假设，对近期前景构成适度拖累。鉴于地缘政治背景，现货价格在短期内可能仍将波动。然而，我们仍预计油价将在2027,年稳定在US$70左右，与之前的预测基本一致（图表2）。该水平仍高于战前价格，反映了残余的地缘政治风险溢价。

图表1 图表2

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 加拿大央行

美联储

资料来源：丰业银行经济部，加拿大央行，美联储。% 美联储和加拿大央行处于不同政策轨道 预测

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Jan-26Mar-26May-26 Jul-26Sep-26Nov-26Jan-27Mar-27May-27 Jul-27Sep-27Nov-27 USD/bbl

June forecast

July forecast

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg. WTI Prices Fell, but Remain Above Pre-War Levels

2全球经济 13,年2026月 丰业银行预测

美国：增长放缓

美国总体经济活动表现略强于预期，第一季度GDP从1.6%上修至2.1%，部分受到波动性贸易流动及商业投资持续强劲的支撑。然而，在总体数据之下，随着劳动力市场状况趋于疲软，家庭支出继续逐步降温。我们预计这一趋势将在未来几个季度持续，消费支出将因劳动力需求放缓和超额储蓄减少而进一步失去动力。股市上涨应继续为消费提供一定支撑，尽管力度不及去年，而持续的通胀日益拖累实际收入增长。与此同时，商业投资——受人工智能相关支出、强劲的企业资产负债表和高企的股票估值支撑——应继续作为重要抵充力量，帮助缓解国内需求的放缓。

另一个显著进展是通胀。物价压力再度超预期上行，强化了美联储不能掉以轻心的观点。政策制定者如今面临更为艰难的平衡：通胀持续，而家庭需求放缓和劳动力市场走弱。在我们的预测中，这令降息推迟，尽管我们仍预计美联储明年将政策转向更为中性的立场。

加拿大：走出疲软期

加拿大经济持续演变，大体符合我们的预期。近期数据支持了这样一种观点，即经济活动正开始从年初经历的疲软期复苏。4月份GDP增长强劲，达到0.5%，与早前的初步估计基本一致，而近期的劳动力市场数据表明，预期的改善可能比预期来得更早一些。尽管就业增长依然温和，但更广泛的劳动力市场状况在经历了疲软的开年后似乎正在趋于稳定。

我们现在预计，2026,年的平均增长率为0.9%，与我们先前的预测基本持平，尽管这一年度数字掩盖了年内动能显著的增强。随着过去降息的效果日益支撑国内需求，尤其是在住房领域，且政府支出赶上计划支出，季度增长应会走强。因此，我们预计2027年的GDP增长率将升至2.2%。美国政府未能在7月1日这一最后期限前续签《美墨加协定》，但这并未改变我们的基线预测。加拿大的出口仍然受到该协定的保护，并继续受益于非常低的关税。我们仍然认为，自由贸易框架最终将会得到续签。

我们持续密切关注的一个领域是潜在通胀。近几个月的势头有所增强，在连续出现较为温和的读数后，月度核心通胀指标出现反弹，这与我们的预期基本一致。尽管总体通胀表现相对良好，但潜在成本压力仍处于与通胀舒适回归目标水平不符的状态。单位劳动力成本、工业品价格指数(IPPI)以及我们自身的潜在成本压力指标均继续指向通胀风险上升（图表 3 ）。近期油价下跌是一个可喜的进展，应能带来一定的缓解，但我们仍认为通胀前景面临显著的上行风险。在此背景下，加拿大央行可能继续保持谨慎，并防范通胀再度加速的风险。我们认为，这些风险要求逐步退出货币刺激政策，央行将在接近年底时两次开始加息。

风险

• 持续的地缘政治紧张局势和油价上行风险。尽管中东局势近期朝着更具建设性的方向发展，但地缘政治紧张局势仍处于高位，不能排除再次出现中断的风险。石油供应持续受限，库存可能需要一段时间才能重建，这使得原油价格面临重新上行的压力。能源价格持续上涨将直接推高总体通胀，并更广泛地提高运输和生产成本。这还可能影响通胀预期，放大并延长价格压力，从而需要更强的货币政策应对（有关此风险的更多详情，请参阅我们之前的报告）。
• Upside risk from U.S. fiscal policy. Additional fiscal support—including higher defence spending and potential household transfers— could boost demand, add to inflation pressures, and keep the Federal Reserve on a more hawkish path.
• CUSMA renegotiation risks. The U.S. administration ’s refusal to renew CUSMA by the July 1 st deadline was not unexpected but an adverse outcome to the upcoming CUSMA negotiations remains a possibility and would represent a significant downside risk (see here ). Chart 3

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 IPPI (LHS) IPPI ex. Energy/Petro. Prods (LHS) Underlying Cost Index (RHS) Canada: Cost Measures are Uncomfortably High % change y/y % change y/y

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada.

3Global Economics July 13, 2026 SCOTIABANK FORECAST

International

2010–19 2023 2024 2025 2026f 2027f 2010–19 2023 2024 2025 2026f 2027f

World (based on purchasing power parity) 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.1

Canada 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.9 2.2 1.6 3.9 2.4 2.1 2.6 2.1 United States 2.4 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 4.1 3.0 2.7 3.3 2.5 Mexico 2.3 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 4.0 5.5 4.7 3.8 4.0 4.1

United Kingdom 2.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.0 2.2 7.3 2.5 3.4 3.3 2.2 Eurozone 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.5 0.7 1.2 1.4 5.4 2.4 2.1 3.0 2.3 Germany 2.0 -0.7 -0.5 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.4 6.0 2.5 2.3 2.8 2.3 France 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.3 5.7 2.3 0.9 2.3 1.8

China 7.7 5.4 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.3 2.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.3 1.2 India 6.9 7.2 7.1 7.7 6.5 6.8 6.6 5.7 5.0 2.2 5.0 4.8 Japan 1.3 0.7 -0.2 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 3.3 2.8 3.2 2.2 2.1 South Korea 3.5 1.5 2.2 1.1 2.6 1.9 1.7 3.6 2.3 2.1 2.7 2.2 Australia 2.6 2.1 1.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.1 5.6 3.2 2.8 4.2 2.8 Thailand 3.6 2.2 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 -0.1 2.8 1.5

Brazil 1.4 3.2 3.4 2.3 1.9 1.8 5.8 4.6 4.4 5.0 5.1 4.3 Peru 4.5 -0.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.3 2.8 6.3 2.4 1.5 3.6 2.7 Chile 3.3 0.7 2.8 2.5 1.5 3.0 2.9 7.3 3.9 4.2 3.6 3.6

WTI Oil (USD/bbl) 74 78 76 65 78 70 Brent Oil (USD/bbl) 82 83 81 69 84 75 WCS - WTI Discount (USD/bbl) -18 -19 -15 -12 -14 -14 Nymex Natural Gas (USD/mmbtu) 3.39 2.73 2.27 3.53 3.72 3.65

Copper (USD/lb) 3.10 3.85 4.15 4.51 6.00 6.00 Zinc (USD/lb) 1.02 1.20 1.26 1.30 1.55 1.40

Gold, (USD/oz) 1,342 1,943 2,386 3,442 4,350 4,200 Silver, (USD/oz) 21.64 23.38 28.21 39.80 65.00 50.00

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, Focus Economics, BEA, BCB, BLS, IMF, Bloomberg. Real GDP (annual % change) Consumer Prices (annual average % change, unless noted)

(annual average) Commodities

4Global Economics July 13, 2026

SCOTIABANK FORECAST

North America

Quarterly Forecasts

2024

Canada Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2e Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f

Real GDP (q/q ann. % change) 2.8 2.9 -1.0 1.9 -1.0 -0.1 2.8 2.2 2.7 2.2 1.5 2.0 2.0 Real GDP (y/y % change) 3.1 3.1 2.0 1.7 0.7 -0.1 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.9 Consumer prices (y/y % change) 1.9 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.9 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 Average of new core CPIs (y/y % change)* 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 CPIXFET (y/y % change)** 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2

United States

Real GDP (q/q ann. % change) 1.9 -0.6 3.8 4.4 0.5 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 Real GDP (y/y % change) 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.7 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 Consumer prices (y/y % change) 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.7 3.9 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.3 Total PCE deflator (y/y % change) 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.9 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 Core PCE deflator (y/y % change) 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 * Average of 2 core measures published by the BoC. ** CPI ex. food, energy and indirect taxes. Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, BEA, BLS, Bloomberg. 202720262025 2010–19 2023 2024 2025 2026f 2027f 2010–19 2023 2024 2025 2026f 2027f

Real GDP 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.9 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.0 1.9 Consumer spending 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.5 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.6 1.6 1.0 Residential investment 2.4 -9.3 0.0 0.6 -2.1 5.4 4.7 -7.8 3.2 -2.2 -4.8 1.1 Business investment* 3.0 3.4 -0.4 0.3 0.5 1.4 5.6 7.3 2.9 4.1 5.4 3.3 Government 1.1 2.9 4.2 3.2 2.2 2.7 0.2 3.5 3.8 1.1 0.9 1.9 Exports 3.5 6.2 0.9 -1.4 2.5 0.7 3.9 2.8 3.6 1.6 3.8 0.4 Imports 3.7 1.2 0.7 -0.3 3.6 1.3 4.3 -0.9 5.8 2.7 0.7 -1.4 Inventories, contribution to annual GDP growth 0.1 -1.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1

Nominal GDP 4.0 3.5 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.1 6.7 5.3 5.0 5.5 4.6 GDP deflator 1.7 1.5 2.7 2.5 3.7 2.2 1.6 3.7 2.5 2.8 3.4 2.6 Consumer price index (CPI) 1.6 3.9 2.4 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.8 4.1 3.0 2.7 3.3 2.5 Core inflation rate** 1.7 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.2 2.2 1.6 4.2 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.4 Pre-tax corporate profits 6.3 -11.8 -2.3 6.2 6.7 2.8 5.9 7.6 5.1 7.3 10.1 3.9 Employment 1.3 3.0 1.9 1.4 0.6 1.2 1.4 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.4 1.1 Unemployment rate (%) 6.9 5.4 6.4 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.2 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.3

Current account balance (CAD, USD bn) -56.9 -20.4 -15.0 -30.6 -11.5 -29.4 -386 -931 -1199 -1177 -988 -944 Merchandise trade balance (CAD, USD bn) -13.6 -0.9 -7.2 -31.4 -13.2 -27.6 -763 -1058 -1213 -1260 -1087 -1067 Federal budget balance (FY, CAD, USD bn) *** -18.7 -61.9 -36.3 -66.9 -65.3 -63.1 -829 -1,694 -1,915 -1,775 -2,076 -2,009 percent of GDP -1.0 -2.1 -1.2 -2.1 -1.9 -1.8 -4.8 -6.1 -6.5 -5.8 -6.4 -5.9

Housing starts (000s, mn) 201 240 245 259 253 248 0.99 1.42 1.37 1.36 1.40 1.41 Motor vehicle sales (000s, mn) 1,816 1,684 1,819 1,894 1,861 1,897 15.7 15.5 15.9 16.3 15.9 16.1 Industrial production 2.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.2 -0.6 1.1 1.1 2.1

Real GDP 2.3 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 Consumer price index 4.0 5.5 4.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 Unemployment rate (%) 4.4 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.3 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, CMHC, BEA, BLS, Bloomberg. *For Canada it includes capital expenditures by businesses and non-profit institutions. ** US: core PCE deflator; Canada: average of 2 core measures published by the BoC. *** In order to align with US reporting, as of the August 2020 issue of Scotiabank's Forecast Tables, Canadian Federal and Provincial Budget Balances for FY2023/24 are noted in calendar year 2023, FY2024/25 in calendar year 2024. (annual % change) Canada (annual % change, unless noted) United States (annual % change, unless noted)

Mexico

5Global Economics July 13, 2026

SCOTIABANK FORECAST

2024

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f

Americas

Bank of Canada 3.25 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 US Federal Reserve (upper bound) 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.25 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.25 3.25 Bank of Mexico 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.75 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.75

Central Bank of Brazil 12.25 14.25 15.00 15.00 15.00 14.75 14.25 14.00 14.00 13.50 13.00 12.50 12.00 Central Reserve Bank of Peru 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 Central Bank of Chile 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25

Europe

European Central Bank MRO Rate 3.15 2.65 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.40 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.40 2.40 European Central Bank Deposit Rate 3.00 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 2.25 Bank of England 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75

Asia/Oceania

Reserve Bank of Australia 4.35 4.10 3.85 3.60 3.60 4.10 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 Bank of Japan 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.50 People's Bank of China 1.50 1.50 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.30 1.30 1.20 1.20 1.20 Reserve Bank of India 6.50 6.25 5.50 5.50 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.50 5.50 5.75 5.75 5.75 Bank of Korea 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Bank of Thailand 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Americas

Canadian dollar (USDCAD) 1.44 1.44 1.36 1.39 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.39 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 Canadian dollar (CADUSD) 0.70 0.70 0.73 0.72 0.73 0.72 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 Mexican peso (USDMXN) 20.83 20.47 18.75 18.31 18.01 17.94 17.49 17.77 17.90 18.03 18.17 18.33 18.50 Mexican peso (CADMXN) 14.48 14.23 13.78 13.15 13.12 12.90 12.32 12.78 13.07 13.26 13.46 13.68 13.91

Brazilian real (USDBRL) 6.18 5.71 5.43 5.32 5.47 5.18 5.16 5.18 5.20 5.21 5.23 5.23 5.25 Peruvian sol (USDPEN) 3.74 3.68 3.54 3.47 3.36 3.48 3.41 3.38 3.35 3.40 3.36 3.40 3.40 Chilean peso (USDCLP) 995 951 932 963 901 926 922 870 870 870 870 870 870

Europe

Euro (EURUSD) 1.04 1.08 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.16 1.14 1.18 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.21 1.22 UK pound (GBPUSD) 1.25 1.29 1.37 1.34 1.35 1.32 1.33 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.39

Asia/Oceania

Japanese yen (USDJPY) 157 150 144 148 157 159 163 157 155 153 150 148 145 Australian dollar (AUDUSD) 0.62 0.62 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.69 0.69 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 Chinese yuan (USDCNY) 7.30 7.26 7.16 7.12 6.99 6.89 6.79 6.78 6.78 6.77 6.76 6.73 6.70 Indian rupee (USDINR) 85.6 85.5 85.8 88.8 89.9 94.8 94.7 95.1 95.2 95.1 95.0 95.0 95.0 South Korean won (USDKRW) 1472 1473 1354 1404 1440 1519 1549 1503 1468 1451 1434 1417 1400 Thai baht (USDTHB) 34.1 33.9 32.5 32.4 31.5 33.0 33.2 33.0 32.9 32.7 32.5 32.3 32.1

Canada (Yields, %)

3-month T-bill 3.15 2.61 2.65 2.42 2.19 2.34 2.26 2.40 2.80 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.05 2-year Canada 2.93 2.46 2.59 2.47 2.59 2.82 2.75 2.90 3.05 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 5-year Canada 2.97 2.61 2.82 2.75 2.97 3.09 3.01 3.15 3.25 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 10-year Canada 3.23 2.97 3.27 3.18 3.43 3.47 3.38 3.50 3.60 3.65 3.70 3.70 3.70 30-year Canada 3.33 3.22 3.57 3.63 3.86 3.90 3.77 3.85 3.90 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

United States (Yields, %)

3-month T-bill 4.14 4.19 4.29 3.85 3.52 3.69 3.71 3.65 3.55 3.30 3.15 3.15 3.15 2-year Treasury 4.24 3.88 3.72 3.61 3.48 3.80 4.17 4.10 3.75 3.50 3.40 3.40 3.40 5-year Treasury 4.38 3.95 3.80 3.74 3.73 3.94 4.23 4.20 3.95 3.75 3.65 3.65 3.65 10-year Treasury 4.57 4.21 4.23 4.15 4.17 4.32 4.47 4.50 4.35 4.25 4.20 4.15 4.10 30-year Treasury 4.78 4.57 4.77 4.73 4.85 4.91 4.95 5.00 4.90 4.85 4.85 4.85 4.85

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg. 2027

(% end of period)

(end of period) 20262025 Central Bank Rates

Currencies and Interest Rates

6Global Economics July 13, 2026

SCOTIABANK FORECAST

The Provinces

Real GDP CA NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC

2010–19 2.3 1.1 2.1 1.2 0.7 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.9 2023 2.0 -3.0 2.9 2.4 2.0 0.7 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.5 2.8 2024 2.0 2.7 3.8 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 3.0 3.0 1.1 2025 1.9 3.5 2.8 2.3 2.0 0.6 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.7 2.0 2026f 0.9 2.7 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.5 1.5 1.8 2.5 0.4 2027f 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.1

Nominal GDP

2010–19 4.0 3.7 4.2 3.0 2.8 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.5 2023 3.5 -4.0 6.7 7.6 3.5 4.7 6.9 5.4 -3.7 -4.0 3.6 2024 4.8 4.6 7.5 8.0 4.0 5.9 5.1 3.3 0.0 5.1 3.5 2025 4.4 4.5 6.0 5.2 4.8 3.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.7 2026f 4.7 10.2 4.3 3.8 4.2 3.1 3.1 4.2 8.5 10.9 3.1 2027f 4.3 1.0 5.7 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.3 3.7 0.3 5.4

Employment

2010–19 1.3 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.3 2.0 2023 3.0 1.8 6.2 2.7 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.7 1.6 3.7 2.6 2024 1.9 2.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 1.0 1.7 2.5 2.6 3.1 2.3 2025 1.4 -0.1 1.2 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.6 2.5 2.8 1.1 2026f 0.6 0.6 2.8 0.8 1.2 -0.2 0.4 1.8 0.7 3.2 -0.4 2027f 1.2 1.0 2.0 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.3 3.0 0.6

Unemployment Rate (%)

2010–19 6.9 13.3 10.6 8.8 9.5 7.1 7.0 5.6 5.3 6.2 6.2 2023 5.4 10.0 7.2 6.4 6.6 4.5 5.6 4.9 4.7 5.9 5.2 2024 6.4 10.0 7.9 6.5 7.0 5.3 7.0 5.4 5.4 7.0 5.6 2025 6.8 10.1 8.0 6.6 7.1 5.6 7.7 5.9 5.2 7.2 6.2 2026f 6.5 9.3 7.3 6.8 7.0 5.5 7.2 5.5 5.5 6.5 6.4 2027f 6.2 9.0 6.7 6.6 7.0 5.5 6.8 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.3

Total CPI, annual average

2010-19 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 2023 3.9 3.3 2.9 4.0 3.5 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.9 3.3 4.0 2024 2.4 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.0 1.4 2.9 2.6 2025 2.1 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.7 2.5 1.9 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.1 2026f 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.2 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.6 2027f 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1

Housing Starts (units, 000s)

2010–19 201 2.2 0.8 4.2 2.7 44 70 6.6 6.0 31 34 2023 240 1.0 1.1 7.2 4.5 39 89 7.1 4.6 36 50 2024 245 1.7 1.7 7.4 6.2 49 75 7.2 4.3 48 46 2025 259 1.6 1.8 9.8 7.6 60 65 7.9 6.2 55 44 2026f 253 1.8 1.9 7.2 7.1 60 69 8.2 5.9 48 44 2027f 248 1.8 1.6 7.3 6.0 57 73 7.8 5.9 45 43

Motor Vehicle Sales (units, 000s)

2010–19 1,816 33 7 52 42 441 738 56 54 239 199 2023 1,684 27 8 42 38 411 718 49 45 209 205 2024 1,819 33 9 49 44 473 764 58 51 223 214 2025 1,894 36 9 55 47 457 787 63 55 234 215 2026f 1,861 34 8 50 43 447 749 58 52 224 204 2027f 1,897 31 8 50 42 446 770 58 52 227 215

Budget Balances, (CAD mn)

2022 -35,322 321 14 123 1,002 -3,126 -5,863 373 1,581 11,641 956 2023 -61,876 -459 -15 142 500 -5,994 -693 -1,971 182 4,285 -5,035 2024 -36,300 -297 -164 82 -104 -5,175 -1,090 -1,149 -249 8,320 -7,347 2025f -66,900 -729 -450 -1,249 -1,328 -7,655 -12,300 -1,661 -1,211 -4,134 -9,614 (annual % change except where noted)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, CMHC, Budget documents; Quebec budget balance figures are before Generations Fund and Stabilization Reserve transfers.

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