油价冲击重塑大宗商品涨势，收益率飙升且金属回落

关键论点

• 能源推动商品指数创历史新高，但涨势日益收窄，非能源商品严重滞后。
• 石油冲击已演变为宏观事件：燃料价格上涨推升通胀预期和债券收益率，增加了进一步货币紧缩的风险。
• 收益率上升压过了黄金传统的避险吸引力，金价正向4300美元附近的关键支撑位回落。
• 铜价回落反映的是关税驱动溢价的消退，而非长期基本面恶化；库存囤积在美国而非真正需要的地方。
• 谷物和软商品创纪录的投机性多头意味着农业需要新的看涨催化剂才能维持动能，使其容易受到获利了结的冲击。

对应原文证据

1. • Energy dominates the record rally: The BCOM Total Return Index heads for a fifth consecutive weekly gain and fresh record high, driven by surging crude, diesel and European natural gas.
2. • Oil shock becomes a macro risk: Middle East supply disruptions are lifting fuel prices, inflation concerns and bond yields, raising the prospect of further monetary tightening.
3. Crude oil has risen close to 8%, while diesel has jumped around 11% as already tight refined-product markets face another deterioration in the Middle East supply outlook.