宏观路标 | 9月美联储加息可能不只是风险管理措施

关键论点

• FOMC加息25个基点，其SEP暗示年内或再加息一次；若通胀回落过慢，2027年可能还有一次。
• 美联储偏好的核心PCE已重新加速至3%以上年率，尽管其他通胀指标显示通胀在缓和。
• 受能源推动的整体通胀，除非能源价格大幅上涨，否则明年春季因基数效应可能更接近目标；地缘政治令能源不确定性异常高。
• 主席沃什称此次行动是撤出“一剂”宽松，并与SEP保持距离，暗示他可能倾向于比中位数预测更紧缩的立场。

对应原文证据

1. The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered on consensus expectations by raising its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting.
2. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also shared updated forecasts in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), sending a strong signal that September’s rate hike will very likely be followed by another hike this year, and possibly an additional hike in 2027 if inflation doesn’t moderate quickly enough. · 2027
3. The FOMC statement explained the move as an action to “support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” While a range of underlying inflation measures suggest that inflation is moderating back to target, the Fed’s preferred measure – core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – has reaccelerated and is currently running above a 3% annual pace.