8月就业报告回顾：就业反弹，美联储9月决策悬于一线

关键论点

• 8月非农就业增加16.2万，远超预期的5.5万，且前月数据向上修正。
• 失业率微升至4.14%（前值4.09%），劳动参与率升至61.6%。
• 增长基础广泛，14个行业中有12个录得增长，包括滞后行业的反弹。
• 强劲数据消除了美联储讨论中对劳动力市场的担忧，使通胀成为近期政策的主要驱动因素。
• 下周CPI将具有决定性；明确加息的阈值约为核心CPI上涨20个基点。

对应原文证据

1. Because most policymakers already viewed the labor market as being in equilibrium, today’s print doesn’t necessarily add to the hawkish argument, but itcertainly does take away from the dovish one. With the labor market solid, inflation will remain the driver ofnear-term policy with next week’s CPI to be decisive. · next week CPI release
2. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y. · August 2026