MUFG 美国宏观策略 宏观2市场 美国月度展望 2026年10月

关键论点

• AI 投资热潮规模庞大，但高度集中于计算机设备，尚未将整体经济推入更强增长轨道。
• 整体需求增速 2.5%–3.5%，类似金融危机后的浅层扩张，远低于互联网泡沫前的水平。
• 劳动力市场停滞，招聘率处于十年低位，但先进制造业表现突出。
• 核心 PCE 去通胀动能支持美联储，但广泛的价格分布显示通胀具有粘性。

对应原文证据

1. Yet despite this surge, broader demand growth still resembles the shallow post-GFC expansion, when annual growth in real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew at a 2.5 –3.5% pace.
2. Fed & Rates View ▪ Fed View: The market is prepped for a much more hawkish Fed than what, we think, will ultimately be delivered.
3. Fed funds futures are pricing roughly three additional rate hikes over the next 12 months, but our base case is that the policy rate remains at today's level over that period, with at most one additional hike in Dec ‘26 before an eventual cut in Sep ‘27.