固定收益 · 利率预测：市场驱动因素转变

关键论点

• 美债熊市趋平反映更高更久的重定价；2s10s自40bp收窄至19bp，2年期升38bp至4.8%，30年期接近5.29%。
• 美国10年期实际收益率年内升74bp至2.1%，而10年期通胀互换仅升5bp至2.5%，显示实际利率主导上行。
• 欧元区收益率上行主要由通胀预期推动：10年期通胀互换年内升34bp，实际收益率升20bp至1.2%。
• 欧洲主权利差走阔反映政治与财政风险；预计OAT-Bund利差在2027年一季度见顶于120bp。

对应原文证据

1. Yields rose across the curve : the 2-year yield increased by 38bps to 4.8%, while the 10 -year gained 17bps and the 30 -year was broadly unchanged at 5.29%.
2. Looking ahead, the cumulative effects of Fed tightening and declining inflation should increasingly weigh on economic activity, supporting a downward repricing of intermediate and long -end Treasury yields.
3. As the market gains confidence that inflation is converging towar ds target, term premia and real yields are likely to compress, particularly in the 5Y and 10Y sectors.