大宗商品快报：中东局势升级推高能源价格THINK 经济与金融分析

关键论点

• 美国与伊朗之间的局势升级增加了区域石油供应风险，尤其是霍尔木兹海峡的通行风险。
• 中东和俄罗斯柴油出口中断使中间馏分油裂解价差保持高位且波动。
• 波斯湾紧张局势使液化天然气恢复希望渺茫，欧洲天然气价格攀升。
• 油价上涨引发通胀担忧，削弱美联储近期宽松预期，对黄金构成压力。
• 美国生物燃料政策支持及中西部天气风险，加上中国强劲需求，推动大豆价格上涨。

对应原文证据

1. Escalation in the Persian Gulf pushes back hopes of any recovery in LNG exports from the region.
2. But as we move closer to the Northern Hemisphere winter, competition between the two regions is likely to pick up, particularly if Qatari LNG remains largely absent from the market through year-end.
3. Rising energy costs could add to inflationary pressures and reduce the scope for near-term Federal Reserve easing, weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold. · near-term