FX Daily: Tipping point

关键论点

• 法国国债抛售打破短期利率持续上行的叙事，欧洲央行面临的政策失误风险大于美联储。
• 欧元/美元跌破2026年新低，偏向1.1100/1120，甚至接近1.10，预计上行修正幅度较浅。
• 美元指数突破101.80创2026年新高，有望上探102.85，受美国经济韧性和能源价格高企支撑。
• 我们偏好低贝塔的中东欧货币，尤其是捷克克朗，并认为欧元/捷克克朗已见顶。

对应原文证据

1. Perhaps adding to the correction lower in US rates were comments from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoing remarks from John Williams earlier in the week that the Fed should not rush into back-to-back rate hikes.
2. Consensus expects around an +85/90k headline gain, an unemployment rate remaining low at 4.1% and a healthy average earnings figure near 3.1% year-on-year.
3. Given very low growth in the US labour force, we doubt a downside disappointment in the headline number will weigh heavily on US rates or the dollar.