欧洲柴油进口面临的威胁：短期内排除短缺风险，但价格上涨风险加剧

关键论点

• 美国柴油出口在2026年上半年增加25%，缓解了欧洲紧张，却压紧了美国国内市场并推动零售价格创纪录。
• 美国一旦削减出口将严重冲击欧洲：进口满足需求的46%，其中40%来自美国，炼厂几乎没有闲置产能。
• 短期欧洲短缺被排除：ARA库存偏低（1200万桶），但应急库存约相当于60天消费量。
• 视柴油裂解价差情景而定，欧元区通胀峰值将被抬高0.1至0.6个百分点，但峰值时点不变。

对应原文证据

1. A particularly tight diesel market due to a shortage of buffer stocks Following the outbreak of the con flict, diesel prices did indeed see some of the sharpest rises on the oil market due to particularly tight market conditions.
2. Eurostat estimates this figure at 270 million barrels in June 2026 (stable from a year earlier), representing approximately 60 days’ worth of EU consumption. · June 2026
3. According to our base-case scenario, crude oil prices are expected to remain very high in Q4 2026 due to ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf, whilst a return to normal levels of diesel exports from Russia and the Middle East appears unlikely by that time. · Q4 2026