ING's Asia week ahead focuses on GDP releases from India and Australia, China's PMIs, Philippines inflation, Japan's retail sales and industrial production, and Korea's trade and inflation. India's GDP growth is expected to ease to 7.5% YoY but remain robust;…
ING Think reports that the French economy narrowly avoided recession in H1 2026, with downward revisions to GDP showing stagnation in Q2 and contraction in Q1. Weak growth makes the government's fiscal targets unattainable, requiring additional consolidation.…
ING Think's report assesses the Eurozone and UK economic outlook six months into the Iran War, arguing that inflation has remained contained and that markets have overpriced additional rate hikes. It expects the ECB to hike once in September but sees further…
Nomura expects further USD weakness due to subdued US inflation, FOMC rate hold, unwinding of long USD positions, and Treasury buybacks. Positive supports include foreign equity inflows and carry trades, but medium-term bearish view on USD remains.
RBC Economics reports that Canada's real GDP rebounded strongly in Q2 2026, rising 3.3% annualized, driven by domestic demand and net trade, but expects growth to moderate in the second half due to temporary factors and U.S. tariffs, while the Bank of Canada…
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook highlights a tech-led rally in US equities boosted by Nvidia's strong guidance, while oil prices rose on geopolitical tensions with Iran. Central bank speakers at Jackson Hole maintained a cautious inflation stance. BSP hiked rates…
UBS CIO expects the Fed to hold rates through 2026 and potentially cut in H1 2027, while elevated inflation and policy uncertainty from Chair Warsh keep long yields high. They recommend diversified portfolios with global equities, quality short-to-medium…
Canada's Q2 2026 GDP grew 3.3% annualized, the fastest in the G7, with strong domestic demand and investment. The Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut rates given robust interest-sensitive sectors. Momentum persists into Q3, though inventory swings and trade…
Chile's unemployment rate rose to 9.5% in the three months to July, above consensus, with job losses driven by weather disruptions and structural weaknesses. Employment posted its first annual decline in over five years, reflecting deterioration across…
Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, with uncertainty over whether he will provide near-term guidance or focus on broader themes. Canada's Q2 GDP is expected to show strong growth, potentially the fastest in the G7. Eurozone…
Scotiabank Economics' Latam Weekly report reviews upcoming key data from Latin America and G10 economies, highlighting Mexico's Q2-2026 GDP details, Peru's inflation and growth outlook, and Brazil's and Chile's GDP expectations. Trade risks persist for…
Scotiabank Economics expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25% this week but sees hikes starting in December, with two more next year, citing stronger growth and inflation risks. The US August nonfarm payrolls are forecast at +30k, and the report…
ING Think's CEE & CCA week ahead report covers key data releases and central bank decisions in Poland, Hungary, Turkey, and Kazakhstan. Poland's 2Q26 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 3.8% YoY, with August inflation edging up to 3.1% YoY. Hungary's GDP…
ING expects Hungary's labour market to ease modestly with wage growth moderating, but structural pressures from demographics persist, supporting elevated wage growth and consumption; they maintain their 2026 forecasts for average wage growth and unemployment.
Italian confidence data improved broadly in August, supporting ING's forecast of 0.9% GDP growth in 2026. Consumer confidence rose to a three-month high, business confidence improved across sectors, and services showed particular strength. Despite…
Poland's draft 2027 budget continues fiscal expansion with a projected general government deficit of 7.1% of GDP, the highest in the EU. Macroeconomic assumptions are broadly in line with ING's baseline. Gross borrowing needs are expected to be lower than…
ING expects the RBNZ to hike its OCR by 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September, in line with market consensus, while retaining a hawkish bias. However, ING sees dovish risks from lower inflation projections, a potentially less hawkish message than markets price, and a…
ING Think analyzes Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech as net hawkish despite his stated avoidance of forward guidance. The market reaction flattened the yield curve, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.3% and hike odds for September jumping to 54%. ING remains…
Citi's report reviews the latest developments in EU and UK financial services regulation, focusing on digital finance, including the digital euro and digital pound projects, stablecoin regimes, crypto-asset regulation, fund tokenisation, AI, cybersecurity,…
Nvidia's earnings confirm sustained AI computing demand, but the AI investment opportunity is broadening beyond GPUs into specialized infrastructure (chips/design), context/software (data & workflows), and control/security (identity, protection, recovery).…