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Broadcom, meanwhile, is helping Meta develop its Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA), with production of the latest generation expected to start in September. It has also developed OpenAI’s first custom inference processor, Jalapeño, which is expected to begin deployment by the end of 2026.

Last quarter, its AI semiconductor revenue reached 10.8 billion USD, up 143% from a year earlier. Management expects roughly 16 billion USD this quarter, representing growth of more than 200%.

Broadcom learned this in June. Revenue grew 48%, but still came slightly below market expectations. Its 16 billion USD AI forecast also fell just short of what analysts had hoped for. The business was booming. The expectation bar was simply higher.

Custom silicon remains tied to a relatively small number of enormous customers. A delayed chip programme, lower infrastructure spending or a customer moving more work to another supplier can shift billions of future revenue.

Finally, expectations matter. When investors already assume years of exceptional growth, even small delays can create large share-price reactions without meaning the long-term business has suddenly deteriorated.

we stick to our forecast of 3.4% growth in 2026

The US-Venezuela agreement is strategically significant, in our view. But it is also unlikely to materially alter the oil-market outlook in the near term, for several reasons:

We forecast the Brent crude price at around USD 85 per barrel in December 2026, with upside risks to this view in the near term if the US-Iran conflict were to re-escalate.

We continue to see value in broad commodity exposure as both a potential source of returns and a portfolio diversifier during periods of geopolitical stress and inflation uncertainty.

Within US equities, we maintain a Neutral view on the energy sector. After strong year-to-date performance linked to rising crude prices and strong refining margins, we expect the sector to perform more in line with the broader market.

Within the sector, we favor selective exposure to oilfield services, which should benefit from rising international spending over the next several years.

Today, central bank independence is facing the most dangerous stress test of its history, caught between the anvil of challenging economic circumstances and the hammer of political opportunism.

Across the G7, government debt-to-GDP ratios have surged to heights unseen outside of wartime and are generally on track to keep growing based on current policies

When a central bank is seen as not entirely free to do what is needed to deliver price stability, inflation expectations can become unanchored. Financial markets demand higher risk premiums, bond yields climb, and everyday borrowing costs from thirty-year mortgages to consumer credit and corporate loans rise, slowing down growth.

Surrendering central bank autonomy will not solve structural budget deficits, lower grocery bills, or resolve geopolitical turmoil. It will simply remove a tried and tested institutional speed limit on short-sighted and ill-advised macroeconomic management.

When central banks act to protect price stability under these conditions, it is much harder for them to deliver a painless landing. Raising interest rates does not replace the missing goods; the best it can do is to prevent a wage-price spiral from taking hold.

Headline CPI rose to 2.9% y/y and core CPI to 2.5% y/y, both broadly in line with consensus.

core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, was unchanged at 3.3% y/y (in line with expectations).

expectations of a rate hike on September 16 rose back from a trough of 35% to 55%.

After exerting the largest drag on growth since late 2023, net exports returned to positive territory, ending the negative trend that had persisted since the beginning of 2025. Supported by declining imports, net exports added 0.6ppt to GDP growth.

a diversified approach across regions and asset classes could help navigating a period in which the credibility of policymakers and the fundamentals of companies, particularly in the artificial intelligence ecosystem, will come under increasing scrutiny.

Elevated single-stock volatility and higher yields in select areas of hyperscaler debt are creating distinct opportunities across equity and fixed income markets.

The first half of 2026 reinforced the importance of balance, selectivity and income generation.

Markets continue to offer attractive opportunities for income generation and selective capital appreciation, according to Franklin Income Investors CIO Ed Perks.

Foundational improvements in market structure and policy frameworks have strengthened emerging markets’ (EM) resilience to external shocks.

Japan’s growth is underpinned by fiscal expansion and robust private demand.

The removal of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro has materially improved the country’s outlook

We believe Fed policy overall will remain supportive for US equities, and we favor a balanced and diversified approach to the asset class.

The US-Venezuela agreement is strategically significant, in our view. But it is also unlikely to materially alter the oil-market outlook in the near term

Taken together, these constraints suggest that the agreement will not materially affect the balance between crude oil supply and demand in 2026.

Within US equities, we maintain a Neutral view on the energy sector. After strong year-to-date performance linked to rising crude prices and strong refining margins, we expect the sector to perform more in line with the broader market.

Within the sector, we favor selective exposure to oilfield services, which should benefit from rising international spending over the next several years.

However, a sustained monthly core inflation rate closer to 0.3%, or broader second-round effects from earlier supply shocks, would increase the risk of further tightening.

We maintain our Attractive rating on Japanese equities and favor balanced exposure across AI, cyclical, and structural beneficiaries.

However, it is important to emphasize the government’s effort to cut spending by about 1.3% of GDP, which is equivalent to past fiscal reforms.

However, the fiscal deficits for both 2026 and 2027 are really large, and debt-to- GDP will probably increase, mainly in 2027, from around 61% of GDP now.

While they rebounded after their Iran war ceasefire negotiations began, flows of bonds and equities have recently decreased, particularly with equity flows experiencing a sharp fall.

That ambiguity is deliberate as Warsh rejects a mechanical Taylor rule and believes an explicit rate path would recreate the shortcomings of forward guidance. Investors therefore received a clearer assessment of the current state of play, but not the predictable reaction function many wanted.

In 2025, France had the second largest public spending in the euro area after Finland, at 57.3% of GDP.

Our analysis of spending by category based on 2024 COFOG data reveals that healthcare and social protection are the primary drivers of the public expenditure gap between France and other major European economies.

Over the 2010 – 2024 period, pension expenditure averaged 13.4% of GDP in France, compared to 10.7% in the Eurozone and 9.3% in Germany.

While the government has targeted a public deficit of 5.0% for 2026, this goal remains ambitious.

Undoubtedly, the fiscal burden of public expenditure — and of the social security system in particular — will take center stage in the upcoming French presidential election.

Polymarket and Kalshi continue to indicate that the probability that Lula wins is around 60%.

The figures show a 7.1% year-on-year increase in gross average earnings in June 2026. This represents a huge slowdown compared with the previous month and is the lowest figure since 2021 (excluding the dip in 2023 caused by the base effect of the one-off bonus for armed forces).

The latest June data has not altered our overall outlook, so we are still expecting annual average wage growth of around 9-10% for 2026 as a whole.

Rather than the double-digit growth previously seen, the increase in June was just 5%. As salaries have been significantly cut in many areas for public servants, a further slowdown is expected here in the coming months.

These include the strong foreign equity inflows into the US

For example, if the 7th AP Fund (a Swedish pension fund) decides to currency-hedge some of its foreign assets, this would ─ all else being equal ─ lead to an inflow of SEK 300-400bn and thus a stronger krona.

The US dollar’s ten-year appreciation trend. The dollar normally moves in long cycles. The volume of US fixed income and equity markets has attracted both private and public capital to the USD.