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Cooling oil and signs of productive US-China talks on AI, trade and investment ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting lifted sentiment, with technology leading gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% and the NASDAQ 2.3%. The US curve flattened, the 2-year unchanged and the…
ING argues time is not on France's side: the 10y OAT/Bund spread briefly tightened below 100bp but faces more upside than downside risks. France's €54bn plan to cut the deficit to 5% faces political headwinds, with presidential and legislative elections ahead…
Despite a $20+ oil surge, a 60bp rise in 2-year Treasury yields, Fed tightening, and the bombing of the Saudi East-West Pipeline, the S&P 500 sits only 2.07% below its August 13 record. Invesco argues bullish fundamentals—strong nominal growth, outsized…
Equity volatility fell across the curve after Friday's record quarterly expiry, yet the tail did not cheapen: CBOE SKEW rose 2.40 points to 148.10 while VIX fell 4.08% to 14.81 and VIX1D dropped 12.96% to 11.42. Bond volatility rose 5.80% to 80.64 with the US…
As the US 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, higher real rates have compressed S&P 500 forward valuations from about 23x to 19x. Yet equities have stayed resilient because forward earnings growth expectations strengthened, offsetting the discount-rate…
Natixis sees Asian growth bifurcating: China softens and drags exposed sectors, while North Asia, India and parts of ASEAN accelerate. Exports are China's key engine on a competitive real exchange rate, but ageing cuts its growth to around 1% by 2050. Japan's…
OCBC's 21 September 2026 snapshot notes the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5% as markets price two more hikes by year-end despite the Fed's 25bp move. US IG and HY spreads tightened 1bp and 2bp to 75bp and 267bp; Asia HY widened 10bp to 323bp. Traders…
Brent fell a fourth straight session to below USD 102/b and WTI sat near USD 98/b as Hormuz crude and LNG flows reached a six-month high and President Trump raised the prospect of meeting Iran's president at the UN General Assembly. Gold slipped below USD…
Saxo's quick take notes Brent at USD 102, down 1.8% for a fourth session, as Strait of Hormuz shipments reached a six-month high and Saudi Arabia restored its East-West pipeline, though Houthi attacks on Saturday did not reverse the slide. US industrial…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…
OCBC's daily outlook flags a hawkish Fed after a unanimous 25bp hike, with the 10-year UST near 5.00% and markets pricing two more hikes by year-end. Focus shifts to the 24 September Trump-Xi talks, where a framework to cut tariffs on about $30bn of goods and…
BOJ hiked rates 25bp to 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, but markets read the meeting as dovish: no faster hike signal, two PM-aligned dissenters favouring a hold, no 50bp hike from Takata or Tamura, and Governor Ueda seeing low probability of back-to-back hikes. USD/JPY…
Fed hike pushes US 10-year Treasury yield to 5.0%, with markets pricing ~33bp more tightening by end-2026 and ~85bp by end-2027. Aussie OIS implies a 4.76% cash rate by year-end. BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.25%, yet the yen weakened on cautious Ueda guidance and two…
Both the Fed (25bp to 3.75%-4.00%) and the BoJ (25bp, 7-2 vote) hiked in September 2026. The Fed's unanimous move versus the BoJ's split vote may lead markets to test the BoJ's commitment, weakening the yen and steepening the JGB curve. The report sees this…
Brent fell for a third session toward USD 104/b and WTI near USD 101/b as Saudi Arabia restores its damaged East-West pipeline, targeting roughly half of capacity within days, while some tanker traffic continues through Hormuz. Gold held near USD 4,350/oz…
BoJ raised its policy rate to around 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, the fastest three-month cadence of its tightening cycle. MUFG judges the hike lacks hawkish impact: it merely confirms the July Outlook baseline rather than responding to new upside risks. Pressure…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, with a hawkish message; markets price at least three more hikes by mid-2027. The dollar rallied, front-end Treasury yields rose, Wall Street fell while Europe advanced. Brent dropped below…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
The FOMC unanimously raised the fed funds rate 25bp to a 3.875% midpoint, with guidance pointing to at least one more move by year-end and 8 of 18 forecasters flagging additional hike risk by end-2027. US 2-year yields rose 7bp and the 10-year topped 5%; the…
The FOMC is widely expected to raise the federal funds rate 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, a test of Chair Kevin Warsh's consensus-building. Oil strength from the US-Iran conflict adds near-term inflation pressure, but resilient growth, robust earnings and AI investment…