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US equities closed mixed: S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -1.3%, Dow +0.1%, with the semiconductor index down 3.4% on AI-revenue concerns. Brent rose 4.1% above USD104/bbl and WTI 3.6% to USD91.49 on Middle East tensions, though Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before…
Australia's October Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index fell 4.7% to 80.4, back to deeply pessimistic levels; sentiment dropped 20% between responses before and after the RBA's September rate hike. US September payrolls rose just 29k versus 89k expected, with…
Peru's August GDP is expected to grow 3.3% y/y, only modestly below July's 3.6%, while Brazil's activity remains sluggish at around 1% y/y. Next week's highlights include US CPI and Latam activity data. Brazilian assets rallied on Bolsonaro's rising election…
CORRA has frequently set 0-5bps above the BoC's target since mid-2023, with volatility rising and occasional deviations above 5bps. BoC measures — a 5bp deposit-rate cut, more term repos and infrastructure changes — have not fully resolved the pressure,…
September saw Treasury yields surge sharply while high-quality credit spreads barely moved. The 2-year rose 57bp to 4.91%, the 10-year 49bp to 5.21%, and the 30-year reached 5.54%, yet AAA spreads held at 27bp. Lower-quality credit widened significantly: BB…
Saxo's options brief notes the S&P 500 fell 0.22% while the equal-weight index lost 0.78% and the Russell 2000 1.31%, yet index option pricing barely followed. Implied correlation at 11.28 remains elevated while dispersion at 36.11 is middling. A new earnings…
The November 3 midterms could end unified government. The baseline, a Democratic House and a neck-and-neck Senate, implies legislative gridlock while the White House keeps leeway on tariffs, immigration, deregulation and foreign policy. Fiscal sticking…
The dollar index holds near year-to-date highs as US rate markets cut expected October Fed hikes to about 5bps from 10bps, with FOMC minutes showing no urgency; gains are driven more by euro-area fiscal and political risk than domestic data, as French-German…
Elevated global rates volatility, driven partly by the US 10-year Treasury yield passing 5%, is keeping eurozone government bond spreads wide despite European political efforts. A return to the low-volatility conditions that previously supported carry trades…
September FOMC minutes showed most participants expected another rate increase by year-end, keeping the dollar supported. ING sees DXY grinding toward 102.85 while markets already price a December hike to 4.25% plus 50bp next year. French debt unrest keeps…
The September FOMC minutes showed a unanimous 25bp hike but a split over whether supply or demand drives inflation; most saw another hike before year-end as likely, yet saw little urgency for October. US 10-year yields spiked intraday above 5.36%, a 24-year…
Fed minutes leaned hawkish, with most officials expecting another hike by year-end, though the probability of an October move stayed low and a 25bp December hike was largely priced. Long-dated Treasuries sold off, with 10Y and 30Y yields touching their…
MUFG stays selectively cautious on Asian FX as the US dollar firms. DXY rose around 0.4% and the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.3%, about 112bp above its start-of-year level. FOMC minutes showed all 19 officials backed September's 25bp hike and most saw…
Oil rose 2% on reports the US could resume strikes on Iran before mid-term elections, with Brent above $102.30/bbl and WTI near $90/bbl. Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf increased, and a tanker was stuck north of Qatar. EIA reported a…
UBS CIO expects the S&P 500 rally to continue after its first record since August, forecasting the index at 8,400 by June 2027. Support comes from AI capex growth above 33% to USD 1.2tr in 2027, roughly 25% S&P 500 earnings growth this year, and 2.2% US GDP…
AI has not yet caused broad labor-market disruption, but September 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 versus a 90,000 consensus, with the three-month average at 51,000. Job losses are concentrated in Information and Finance, while Education and Health…
SMBC argues Treasury demand has shifted from buy-and-hold investors, especially foreign official institutions, toward hedge funds that rely on repo funding. Using Federal Reserve Board elasticity estimates, the note calculates the market's demand sensitivity…
Bonds are under pressure from higher oil prices on escalating Strait of Hormuz attacks, renewed EGB fractures, and a hawkish global central bank tone (RBI hike, possible BCRP move). Treasury and Canadian yields rose in bear steepeners, with long-end yields up…
The MOVE index fell 7.39% to 105.21 — its second-largest one-session drop on record — while the 10-year yield barely moved at 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.68%. Equity volatility is already exhausted: VVIX at 82.59 is lower than all 60 stored sessions. Saxo…
The RBI raised the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50%, its first hike in four years, and shifted to a calibrated tightening stance, ruling out near-term cuts. Growth and inflation forecasts were revised up to 7.1% and 5.2%. ING expects a gradual cycle with 50bp more…