Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding analyzes the inflation versus wage puzzle, arguing that current above-target inflation is driven by profit margins rather than labor costs. She outlines three scenarios for resolving the price/labor-cost gap, favoring the…
Scotiabank Economics reports that bonds and stocks are simultaneously cheapening due to renewed Iran hostilities and inflation concerns, while central banks like the Bank of Canada, RBNZ, and RBA are making key decisions amidst mixed economic data. The BoC is…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com SCOTIABANK FORECAST September 9, 2026 Contributors Olivier Gervais Director, Modelling and…
OCBC Research's Weekly Research Views covers macro, geopolitical, and credit developments, highlighting a hawkish Fed, US-Iran conflict, and resilient Asia growth. Key forecasts include RBA hike, BNM hold, BoT normalization, BSP hikes, and Singapore/HK growth…
Invesco's Matt Brill discusses the investment grade credit market, highlighting strong corporate balance sheets, attractive all-in yields, and the impact of hyperscaler AI spending. He argues that credit markets remain diversified relative to equities, with…
SMBC Nikko highlights that the AI/data center capital expenditure cycle is accelerating despite mixed broader economic signals. Core nondefense capital goods shipments surged 10.6% y/y in July, one of the strongest readings since 1992, indicating robust…
SMBC Nikko highlights that US real disposable incomes have slowed sharply to 0.5% y/y in June 2026 from a peak of 7.2% in June 2023, yet consumption remains above pre-Covid trends, enabled by a record-low savings rate of 2.7%. The report warns that this…
Invesco argues that the current AI-driven market rally is supported by real demand for computing power, unlike past speculative booms. Strong earnings growth without corresponding hiring suggests productivity gains are materializing. The firm maintains a…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Weekly discusses the Treasury's decision to double long-end buybacks, its implications for term yields, and the conditions under which yields might decline. The report suggests that buybacks alone are unlikely to durably lower…
SMBC remains constructive on Q3 capital expenditures, forecasting a 10% QoQ annualized gain, supported by accelerating nondefense capital goods shipments despite a modest deceleration in business equipment production.
SMBC's US Rates Strategy report discusses the limitations of AI-based inflation forecasts, favors steepening the 5s30s curve, and expects modest improvements in inflation and labor data to keep the Fed on hold. The report also highlights opportunities in swap…
July retail spending was weak, with headline retail sales down 0.6% MoM and the control component down 0.4%, trimming Q3 real PCE tracking to +2.2%. Despite the slowdown, SMBC remains optimistic on Q3 GDP and consumer outlook, expecting a rebound in August…
SMBC notes that July 2026 healthcare PPI inflation slowed to 0.12% MoM, the lowest since February 2026. As healthcare prices feed directly into PCE, this is likely to keep the Fed's preferred inflation measures contained, with forecasts of 0.15% headline and…
SMBC anticipates modest July inflation and retail sales prints, expects the Treasury to maintain bill issuance and higher Q4 net supply, and highlights elevated implied volatility and term premium due to Fed communication uncertainty. They propose an auction…
SMBC Nikko's report 'AI capex' assesses the macro impact of hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending. Although hyperscaler capex is projected to exceed $770bn in 2026 and $1.3trn in 2027, the GDP effect is dampened by high import intensity. Nevertheless, the…
PIMCO's analysis suggests that underlying U.S. inflation is running around 2.2%-2.8% through June 2026, well below the 3.3% core PCE rate, which appears to be an outlier on the high side. The firm maintains a base case that core inflation will cool over time…