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The dollar finally aligned with supportive drivers: elevated front-end rates, oil near $107, and soft risk sentiment. DXY notched its strongest session since the Jackson Hole speech. USD/JPY briefly hit 155 and may extend to 156-157. The Fed hiked as…
Citi's Supply Chain Financing report finds global trade durable through 2025 tariff shocks. Payment flows stayed strong; shipping normalized. From 2019-2024, North & East Asia exports shifted to emerging markets (Latin America +59%, Middle East & Africa +52%,…
The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% on 14 September, the first time since October 2023, driven by higher energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy and heavy US government borrowing. Saxo Bank argues…
Brent settled at $105.68/bbl after the 7m b/d East-West pipeline shutdown, with prices supported until Saudi supply visibility improves. Middle distillate cracks stay near records above $80/bbl despite a Russia-Ukraine energy-infrastructure halt. TTF trades…
US equities fell as tech slid on AI safety comments, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and Nasdaq 0.6%. The US 10Y yield briefly breached 5% for the first time since October 2023, with markets pricing about a 90% probability of a 25bp Fed hike. Middle East tensions…
Credit spreads were calm and tightened last week even as the UST 1-10Y curve rose by 18-27bps w/w, suggesting the move was a rates shock rather than a credit shock. Asia USD IG OAS narrowed 1bp to 56bps, HY 11bps to 313bps. SGD credit total returns fell 0.18%…
Markets opened the week risk-off after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure, reportedly lasting weeks, and AI leaders' calls to slow development; President Trump's pushback against AI controls limited US equity losses. Brent rose 1.6% to $106.3/bbl and…
The US 10-year Treasury yield has touched 5%, driven mainly by higher real yields for good, bad and ugly reasons, and ING says a 25bp Fed hike may not cap the back end. Whether or not the Fed hikes, the 10yr is liable to test 5% again. A journey toward 6% is…
Man Group argues the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 5% signals sovereign paper shifting from risk-free anchor to portfolio risk, driven by sticky inflation, heavy debt loads and weak fiscal credibility. Treasury Secretary Bessent's $6bn buyback of 10- to…
A potentially historic El Niño is developing against a fragile global backdrop. NOAA assigns a greater than 90% probability it reaches 'very strong' levels between October and December 2026, and a 69% probability it becomes a historic event. The bigger risk…
UBS CIO remains constructive on US equities despite hot August core CPI at 0.3% m/m, which lifts odds of a 25bp Fed hike this week to near 90%. Historical data show hikes matter only when growth falters; ISM Manufacturing has expanded for eight months,…
The ECB raised policy rates by 25bp to 2.50%, a unanimous, scenario-robust decision, reaffirming a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment. Inflation risks are tilted to the upside; growth risks to the downside. Lagarde struck a…
State Street expects Democrats to win the House and Republicans to hold the Senate after the 2026 midterms. The election is unlikely to be a major market catalyst because no overarching policy theme will produce major federal legislation. Divided government…
Scotiabank Economics reports that all higher-frequency Canadian core inflation measures exceed the 2% target, with traditional core CPI at 3.9% m/m SAAR in August 2026. Headline CPI was -0.1% m/m and 3.0% y/y, in line with consensus. The output gap is…
Canadian headline CPI held at 3% y/y in August, with energy up 15.4% and gasoline 23% above year-ago levels. Food inflation eased to 2.8%, the lowest since late 2024, and grocery growth lagged overall inflation for the first time in over two years. Core…
MUFG expects the BoJ to raise its uncollateralized overnight call rate target from around 1% to around 1.25% at the September meeting, a move the market has priced with greater than 90% probability. The 10-year JGB yield is likely to remain volatile in the…
A triple threat of AI growth concerns, elevated bond yields and an oil price spike has driven broad risk-off flows, lifting the US dollar. The week ahead is packed with the FOMC, BoE and BoJ, while a 25bp BoJ hike is fully priced and Fed Chair Warsh is…
Natixis expects the FOMC to raise the policy rate to a 4.0% upper bound at the September 2026 meeting, the first hike in three years and the first under Chair Warsh. August core CPI came in above expectations on one-off factors, cementing hike expectations. A…
Every headline volatility measure fell Friday except skew, which rose 5.08% to 154.49 as the S&P 500 gained 0.86% to 7,656.98. The 18 September expiry prices a 1.33% move, down from 141 points, though three central bank decisions fall inside that window. The…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…