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Schwab's On Investing podcast weighs a hotter-than-expected core CPI against the AI infrastructure boom. Higher Treasury yields pressure rate-sensitive firms, making quality a focal point into earnings. TCW's Bryan Whalen notes hyperscalers increasingly fund…
FX markets are caught between hot inflation, which argues for tighter Fed policy, and an AI-related tech selloff that could force a softer stance. ING expects the dollar to consolidate near recent highs, sees DXY capped at 102.40/50, and flags defensive Swiss…
US September producer prices jumped 1.3% m/m, the largest since March 2022, with energy up 10.8% and core PPI up 0.7%; retail sales rose 0.8% but control-group sales gained only 0.1%. Equities rotated out of AI and chip names into healthcare, financials and…
Brent crude holds above USD 105/b even as prices drift about 0.6% lower to USD 105.33/b, with WTI down 0.7% at USD 97.30/b and on track for a near 6% weekly gain after Hurricane Isaias. EIA data show a 300k b/d US production drop, an 8.6m bbl fall in…
US producer prices rose 1.3% MoM in September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, with PPI at 6.3% YoY; retail sales beat at 0.8%. Despite hot inflation data, the 10-year Treasury yield fell roughly 15bps to around 5.04%, its largest single-day…
Fed Chair Warsh gave no policy guidance, which markets read as endorsing current pricing; the October hike probability dropped from 26% to 14% and the 2-year yield fell 3-4bps. The dollar was broadly unchanged. Warsh dwelt on AI, calling it a near-term…
MUFG expects the Philippine central bank to raise its policy rate 25bp to 5.25% on higher oil prices and Super El Niño risk, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold at 5.75%, though…
A technology-led equity selloff drove a haven bid into Treasuries, pushing the 2-year yield down to about 4.7% and reversing the post-CPI rise, while the 10-year fell to roughly 5.05%. Lower US yields broadly relieved Asian currencies, but record foreign…
MUFG reports the USD is on course to weaken this week, ending four straight weekly gains. After jumping to a fresh year-to-date high on stronger September US CPI, the dollar quickly gave back those gains. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this month;…
Australia's September employment fell 39.3k, but a 0.2ppt participation drop kept unemployment at 4.7%, now above the RBA's 4.6% NAIRU. Westpac expects the jobless rate to peak near 4.8% by Q2 2027 and still forecasts a 25bp RBA hike in November, with…
Westpac argues that Australian firms bundling previously surcharged card-acceptance costs into sticker prices reveal a 'cost-plus' pricing mentality driven by non-labour cost escalation rather than wages, which base growth has kept moderate. The RBA is…
Westpac's weekly NZ review flags soft housing data and revised 2027 forecasts showing higher inflation with more moderate growth. The exchange rate has been weak, and Westpac now expects NZD/AUD to plumb new cycle lows, making trans-Tasman travel more…
High oil prices lift Canada's aggregate purchasing power while squeezing households. Real GDP rose 1.1% year-over-year in Q2, but real GDI climbed 3.1% as terms of trade added about $12 billion per quarter. Gains concentrate in oil-producing regions:…
September producer prices rose 1.3% m/m and core PPI 0.7% m/m, both more than double consensus, while headline retail sales gained 0.8% versus 0.3% expected. SMBC tracks 3.4% QoQar real PCE growth (revised up 0.1pp) and 4.0% Q3 GDP. Despite Fed pushback on an…
PIMCO argues the AI infrastructure boom is not just a US story: announced capex by large US tech firms exceeds $1 trillion for 2026, with roughly $1.5 trillion more forecast thereafter, driving global supply chains and other economies. AI investment added…
Long-end yields have calmed after recent multi-decade highs, but ING sees at least one more leg of weakness that could push the US 10-year yield into a 5.25-5.5% range, with jitters possibly extending into Q1 2027. Drivers include fiscal issuance pressure,…
September US headline inflation rose 0.6% m/m and core 0.3%, with the annual core rate at 2.6%. UBS CIO still expects only two more Fed hikes (December, March), not the roughly 3.5 markets price. It raised its end-December 10-year Treasury yield forecast to…
ING argues EUR/USD will remain in a 1.10-1.15 range over the next three to six months, as a hawkish Fed and ECB repricing tied to French fiscal concerns keep real rate differentials at their widest since 2022. Neither driver looks set to reverse soon. A…
ING now expects the Bank of England to hike rates in November and February, driven by elevated natural gas prices and a brief CPI peak above 4% in early 2027. The hikes are framed as insurance, with cuts possible by late 2027 if second-round effects remain…
ING expects eurozone growth to moderate after a solid third quarter, with 2026 average growth of 1.0% and 1.2% in 2027 assuming energy prices normalise. HICP inflation rose to 3.8% in September, with underlying at 2.5%, and is likely to end 2026 above 4%…