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Global financial conditions are tightening as inflation rises and most central banks raise rates, with the PBOC as the exception. Hong Kong retains a major liquidity pool, with IPO fundraising rebounding since 2025 and HIBOR below SOFR. China's RMB usage in…
US equities were mixed as financials rotated into tech, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a record while the Dow fell 0.4%. WTI dropped 5.5% to USD90.52/bbl and Brent fell 1.8% to USD98.53/bbl after Iran signalled the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days…
MUFG expects Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate on hold, as a steadier IDR masks elevated US 10-year yields and oil near US$100/bbl. The bank flags upside risks to IDR from domestic policy uncertainty and external pressures, while highlighting strong…
Brent fell below USD 99/b and WTI traded near USD 90/b as Saudi Arabia moved toward restoring its 7m b/d East-West pipeline and US-Iran contacts were described as 'very productive.' Gold edged lower to about USD 4,340/oz on Fed restrictive-rate signals,…
Mixed US-Iran headlines left market pricing of geopolitical risk little changed: Trump's UN threat to "annihilate" Iran was offset by reports of "very productive" official talks. Brent fell 1.9% to US$98.5/bbl; LME copper rose 0.6% to US$14,748/mt on firmer…
This Natixis report, written by Benito Berber and Selin Aker, examines Brazil's upcoming general election and its potential impact on asset prices, particularly the Brazilian Real (BRL). The report is a marketing communication and not independent investment…
Germany's fiscal plan delivers short-term stimulus without lifting potential growth: the public deficit widens from 3.0% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, peaks at 4.5% in 2027, then eases to 4.2% in 2028 as health and pension reforms tighten social security.…
Hawkish remarks from non-voting Fed officials Goolsbee and Musalem lifted front-end USD rates even as Brent briefly fell below $100/bbl, breaking the usual oil-dollar link. ING sees near-term dollar upside, with DXY possibly reaching 101.0 by month-end, while…
Wall Street rallied on AI and semiconductor strength, with the Nasdaq Composite closing at a record and the Nasdaq 100 up 2.83%. Meta and AMD led gains, AMD crossing a $1 trillion market value. Oil rebounded after four sessions, Brent at $102 and WTI at…
US equities rallied as AI optimism, easing energy prices and positive US-China trade headlines lifted sentiment. S&P 500 rose 1.5% and Nasdaq advanced 2.3% to a record close; Meta jumped 11% on its Muse AI agent, while AMD passed USD1t market cap. Brent fell…
Oil rebounded from four declines, with Brent above USD 101/b and WTI near USD 98/b, as Hormuz, Saudi export, Libyan and Red Sea disruptions offset US-Iran diplomatic hopes. Gold edged up to about USD 4,360/oz as lower oil eased inflation and Fed tightening…
The US dollar has strengthened after the Fed began tightening, pushing the dollar index back above 100.00 for the first time since early August, with 101.80 as next resistance. The move is supported by a roughly 55bp rise in the 2-year Treasury yield since…
MUFG argues Meta's new consumer AI assistant Muse, which topped US mobile charts and lifted chipmakers AMD and Intel, may mark the next phase of AI growth toward a billion new users. Value could shift from model intelligence to orchestration applications,…
Cooling oil and signs of productive US-China talks on AI, trade and investment ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting lifted sentiment, with technology leading gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% and the NASDAQ 2.3%. The US curve flattened, the 2-year unchanged and the…
UBS CIO argues rising rates alone will not derail equities, as the Fed, ECB, and BoE tighten and the BoJ enters a new policy phase. Resilient growth and robust earnings support staying positioned for upside, with transformational innovation in AI, energy…
Despite a $20+ oil surge, a 60bp rise in 2-year Treasury yields, Fed tightening, and the bombing of the Saudi East-West Pipeline, the S&P 500 sits only 2.07% below its August 13 record. Invesco argues bullish fundamentals—strong nominal growth, outsized…
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25% to a 3.75%-4% range in a unanimous September decision, framed as an insurance and credibility measure to return inflation to target sooner. Projections imply one further hike by end-2026, then a hold in 2027.…
Natixis argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a hesitant communicator who avoids forward guidance, has signaled his preferred gauges: inflation breadth, broad financial conditions and alternative underlying-inflation measures such as trimmed mean and median.…
State Street's weekly outlook sees the Middle East energy crisis as the biggest risk to an otherwise constructive macro backdrop, with US midterms raising escalation odds. The Fed hiked 25bp in September and may hold before possibly reversing one hike by…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…