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The dollar is modestly weaker, having ended four straight weekly gains that lifted the index to a year-to-date high of 102.95, before falling back below the 200-week moving average near 102.10. Stronger US inflation data failed to extend gains, prompting some…
Scotiabank's weekly preview argues Canadian core inflation remains at or above the BoC's 2% target, with traditional core running near 3% m/m SAAR for four straight months and another firm print expected, supporting the view that policy is too loose. BoC…
Fed Chair Warsh gave no policy guidance, which markets read as endorsing current pricing; the October hike probability dropped from 26% to 14% and the 2-year yield fell 3-4bps. The dollar was broadly unchanged. Warsh dwelt on AI, calling it a near-term…
MUFG expects the Philippine central bank to raise its policy rate 25bp to 5.25% on higher oil prices and Super El Niño risk, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold at 5.75%, though…
Standard Chartered argues Asia's local-currency bond markets are opening a new low-cost funding channel for sovereign, supranational and agency issuers. In H1 2026, CNH issuance rose 82% to CNY317bn and HKD issuance 112% to HKD362bn, rivalling G3 issuance of…
Westpac's October 2026 Outlook says markets have had little respite: bond yields have jumped, led by US 10-year benchmarks up 27bps above 5% and French bonds up 40bps, driven by real yields after the Fed's September hike. Westpac expects one more Fed hike,…
The dollar gave back gains made after a stronger-than-expected September US CPI, with the index falling from a year-to-date high of 102.95 toward 102.00. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 18bps to 4.95% post-CPI before retreating to near 4.70%. MUFG…
MUFG holds that more volatile market conditions remain the key risk. G10 FX volatility has retraced after spiking as the dollar strengthened on surging sovereign bond yields. MUFG judges risks skewed toward a further leg up in yields. On the Middle East,…
MUFG's Economic Monthly for September 2026 reviews ASEAN, India and Australia. Singapore's real GDP growth eased to 5.9% y/y in Q2, Indonesia to 5.3% y/y, Thailand to 1.9% y/y and the Philippines to 2.3% y/y, while Malaysia accelerated to 6.0% y/y and…
The yen has firmed modestly, with USD/JPY nearing 158.00 after trading just below its 200-day moving average near 158.50 this month. Intervention risk and expected BoJ tightening are capping the pair's upside even as broad USD strength persists. MUFG expects…
The RBI's new FX measures, including a 20% FERR on large USD/INR forwards, helped spot INR strengthen 1% in a day. But pressure moved to forward premia, wider onshore-offshore spreads and higher bond yields. MUFG expects USD/INR to rise gradually to 97.50 by…
Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
MUFG argues AI's capital-intensive expansion has become a singular secular theme pushing global capital markets into a new regime. Combined annual debt and equity issuance is seen exceeding $5 trillion in 2026 (equity $462bn, debt $3.6tn annualized), while…
J.P. Morgan analysts say housing affordability is at its weakest US level since 2008: buying a median-priced home needs 43% of median household income, 30-year mortgage rates are near 7%, and only 35.2% of under-35s own homes. Chronic supply-demand…
Barclays' Green Budget chapter projects CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 before returning to 2% in 2028. Real GDP growth slows from 1.4% in 2026 to 1.2% in 2027, with unemployment rising to 5.7% and real earnings falling in both years.…
Long-term government bond yields are near multi-year highs across major economies, accompanied by elevated volatility. Amundi attributes the move to persistent inflation, monetary policy uncertainty, fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions affecting energy…
MUFG reports the dollar index consolidating just above 102 ahead of Wednesday's US September CPI, with the 2-year Treasury yield down about 20bp from its 29th September peak after softer PCE and NFP data. The rate market prices roughly 5bp of Fed hikes this…
The US dollar index stayed firm near 102.20 despite softer University of Michigan sentiment (46.3) and higher one-year inflation expectations (4.7%). Strong 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions capped long-end yields. India and Taiwan saw foreign equity…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
MUFG expects Asia FX to trade range-bound in the week ahead, driven by US September CPI, Treasury yields and China activity, inflation and credit data. A softer US inflation print would support high-yielding Asian currencies and help stem equity outflows,…