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MUFG warns that a tougher external backdrop—higher US Treasury yields and Brent above $100/bbl—leaves Asia FX with a narrow path. The next US payrolls report is the key catalyst; consensus expects 100k jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. MUFG keeps a bias for…
The yen is the top performer after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said President Trump expressed concern over yen weakness, while Growth Minister Kiuchi noted the communication that rate hikes are on the radar. US Treasury yields fell modestly, tightly…
MUFG flags contagion risk after the 2-year UST yield jumped 72bp in 21 days, the largest such move since March 2023. Forced selling by fast money could trigger liquidation of profitable AI equity and FX carry positions. The dollar has modestly retraced as…
Markets were subdued as oil and bond yields rose. Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Red Sea oil facilities pushed Brent to $107/bbl and WTI to $94.72, outweighing hints of a US-Iran phased deal. The US-China trade truce was extended to January 2027 during Xi's…
US 10yr Treasury yields extended their overshoot toward 5.25-5.5%, driven mainly by higher real yields rather than inflation expectations, which remain contained. Weak 5yr and 7yr auctions added momentum, pushing yields above 5.1% and near 5.2%. Bearish…
US senators and governors have proposed banning diesel exports to relieve farmers. Due to legal delegation, President Trump could enact such a ban without further Congressional action. The US exports 1.0–1.5 mb/d, much to Latin America. Mexico, Chile, and…
ING reads Czech September confidence as consistent with sub-par expansion. Consumer confidence rose 2.8 points to 105.1, which ING treats largely as a correction; business confidence fell 1.8 points to 98.4, below expectations and the long-run average, led by…
MUFG's FX quant framework argues the 2026 yen appreciation differs from past corrections: the traditional drivers of structural yen weakness have shifted. The US-Japan 10-year nominal yield differential has narrowed to roughly 209bps from about 399bps during…
Natixis argues Germany's 2026 collective bargaining round should not trigger euro-area second-round effects. Nominal wage growth is forecast to slow to about 3.8% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 from 4.4% in 2025, with negotiated wages at 2.6% YoY in June 2026 and…
French confidence lost momentum in September as the business climate fell to 96 and consumer confidence held at 86, far below long-term averages. The 10-year OAT yield briefly reached 4.70%, its highest since 2008, adding fiscal and financing pressure. ING…
The dollar rally looks stretched after DXY broke above 101.0 on strong US PMIs, higher oil and soft risk sentiment; absent upside US data surprises, ING expects a correction toward 100-100.5. EUR/USD's break below 1.140 is stretched undervaluation, with…
The global fixed income sell-off continues without clear resolution, with the US dollar strengthening as US yields rose across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed roughly 60bps this month, approaching the scale of the March move after the…
US flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, with services at 58.7 and manufacturing at 57.0, prompting a sharp sell-off in Treasuries. The 10-year yield closed above 5.11%, a post-GFC high, and the 2-year reached 4.89%. Equities fell, the dollar…
MUFG flags elevated USD/JPY volatility over Japan's autumn holidays after the BOJ hiked to 1.25% with two dissents while the Fed delivered a unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%. The pair pushed above 157.50; MUFG's forecast range is 155.00-159.00, with…
Citi argues tokenization of collateral has moved from concept to practical use. Four case studies show real-time margining, US Treasuries mobilized across a 24-hour cycle without leaving the Federal Reserve, tokenized money market funds, and pre-IPO private…
Global bonds extended their selloff, lifting the US 10-year yield to 5.1142% and the 30-year to near 5.4%, with European curves also higher. Strong September flash PMIs and a weak USD70bn 5-year auction reinforced rate-hike expectations. US equities fell (S&P…
Strong US PMIs and rising oil prices deepened the Treasury selloff, lifting 2-year yields 14bp to about 4.9% and the 10-year above 5.0%. Markets price roughly 37bp of additional Fed tightening by December 2026. The DXY rose 0.5%, pressuring most Asian…
Using Dutch debit-card transaction data, ABN AMRO finds active drivers cut fuel purchases about 12% year on year from March to July after the Iran war energy shock and a January excise increase, limiting extra fuel spending to 6% (about EUR 10, to EUR 150…
Rising oil prices, strong US PMI data, hawkish Fed Governor Barr comments and weak demand at a five-year Treasury auction pushed the US 10-year yield back above 5.0%, pressuring global equities and lifting the dollar. Brent rose 4.2% to US$103/bbl after…
A strong September US composite PMI (58.4) pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield back above 5%, breaching 5.1%, with October rate-hike odds above 70%. Euro rates also rose, with Euribor 10-year above 3.5%, and higher rates can widen eurozone government bond…