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US equities rotated out of financials into technology as AI competition and a flatter yield curve pressured banks. Oil fell after Iran signalled possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline.…
Euro area September flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0, its highest since April 2023 and above the 51.8 consensus, led by new orders at 52.8. Manufacturing held at 52.7 and services activity climbed to a 10-month high of 53.0. Yet employment was flat…
Australia's FY26 reporting season showed a resilient corporate sector: about 200 companies reported, dividends came in slightly ahead with higher payout ratios, and net debt and interest coverage beat expectations. Inflation, wage and energy costs pressured…
The US dollar strengthened modestly even as Brent crude fell around 4%, after US and Iranian officials met at the UN General Assembly and indirect talks were described as very productive. Optimism on a deal to halt the conflict, and reports Iran may reopen…
Australian state budgets are set to deteriorate by $13.5bn over four years versus published 2026 budgets, mainly in FY2027, as a 60bps average rise in sovereign bond yields since budget publication adds about $3.5bn to interest costs and a sharper housing…
Global financial conditions are tightening as inflation rises and most central banks raise rates, with the PBOC as the exception. Hong Kong retains a major liquidity pool, with IPO fundraising rebounding since 2025 and HIBOR below SOFR. China's RMB usage in…
Six banks including Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ASB Bank, Bank of America, Capital One, ING Group and NatWest Group jointly published principles to guide responsible development of agentic commerce, where AI agents could select and pay for products. The…
Mixed US-Iran headlines left market pricing of geopolitical risk little changed: Trump's UN threat to "annihilate" Iran was offset by reports of "very productive" official talks. Brent fell 1.9% to US$98.5/bbl; LME copper rose 0.6% to US$14,748/mt on firmer…
This Natixis report, written by Benito Berber and Selin Aker, examines Brazil's upcoming general election and its potential impact on asset prices, particularly the Brazilian Real (BRL). The report is a marketing communication and not independent investment…
Germany's fiscal plan delivers short-term stimulus without lifting potential growth: the public deficit widens from 3.0% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, peaks at 4.5% in 2027, then eases to 4.2% in 2028 as health and pension reforms tighten social security.…
Risk sentiment improved on positive US-China summit headlines, a fourth straight Brent decline to $101.9 and lower long-end Treasury yields; the S&P 500 rose 1.5% and Nasdaq 2.3%, US IG spreads held at 75bp while US high yield tightened 3bp to 264bp. Asia USD…
Treasury's 2026 Intergenerational Report projects Australia's population rising from about 28 million to 39.3 million by 2065-66, with growth slowing to 0.9% a year from 1.4%. Deaths are expected to outnumber births by the 2060s. Real GDP growth averages 2%…
CBA's Household Spending Insights show Australian spending rose just 0.1% in August, with essentials outpacing discretionary items. Transport led at 2.0% monthly and 9.0% annually, driven by a 3.4% rise at petrol stations after the fuel excise cut ended and…
The US dollar has strengthened after the Fed began tightening, pushing the dollar index back above 100.00 for the first time since early August, with 101.80 as next resistance. The move is supported by a roughly 55bp rise in the 2-year Treasury yield since…
Cooling oil and signs of productive US-China talks on AI, trade and investment ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting lifted sentiment, with technology leading gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% and the NASDAQ 2.3%. The US curve flattened, the 2-year unchanged and the…
Natixis argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a hesitant communicator who avoids forward guidance, has signaled his preferred gauges: inflation breadth, broad financial conditions and alternative underlying-inflation measures such as trimmed mean and median.…
State Street's weekly outlook sees the Middle East energy crisis as the biggest risk to an otherwise constructive macro backdrop, with US midterms raising escalation odds. The Fed hiked 25bp in September and may hold before possibly reversing one hike by…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
OCBC's 21 September 2026 snapshot notes the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5% as markets price two more hikes by year-end despite the Fed's 25bp move. US IG and HY spreads tightened 1bp and 2bp to 75bp and 267bp; Asia HY widened 10bp to 323bp. Traders…
Westpac's review of Australia's 2026 Intergenerational Report flags AI as a potential productivity game-changer, but stresses gains depend on widespread adoption, and estimates are uncertain. Ageing lifts health, aged care and pension costs while shrinking…