Talking about trade international September 2026

中文标题

Talking about trade international 2026年9月

Westpac / Westpac IQ09/03/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Westpac IQ's September 2026 report highlights persistent high energy prices due to the US-Iran conflict, pushing goods inflation higher without significant second-round effects, and a tightening bias among central banks. Australian GDP grew 0.4% qtr in Q2 but momentum slowed. The RBA is expected to hold rates and start easing in H2 2027. Housing prices are forecast to fall 3% nationally this year. The current account deteriorates as goods trade surplus falls. AI is boosting services imports, while education exports decline due to tighter visa rules.

Institution: Westpac / Westpac IQ
Published: 09/03/2026
Research topic: Energy prices · Energy · Inflation
Time horizon: near-term · Q2 2026 · this year · going forward · medium-term · coming quarters

CPI · CPI

Key arguments

Energy prices remain high and volatile due to no resolution in the US-Iran conflict, keeping goods inflation elevated.
Central banks maintain a tightening bias, but the energy price shock is unlikely to lead to significantly higher interest rates.
Australian GDP grew 0.4% qtr in Q2, showing resilience but a significant loss of momentum in H1 2026.
RBA is expected to start easing policy from H2 2027, with no further hikes expected.
National housing prices are expected to fall 3% this year as the market adjusts.
The goods trade balance is set to continue deteriorating, driving the current account down.
AI adoption is increasing services imports, and eventually may boost services exports if excess computing power emerges.
Education exports are in retreat due to falling student numbers, impacting around 40% of services exports.

Key numbers

Australian Q2 GDP growth: 0.4% qtr
National house price fall expected this year: 3%
Fuel imports jump in Q2: >40%
Fuel import volumes increase: 5.7% qtr
ADP imports decline in Q2: ~25%
Services exports share from education: ~40%

Main risks

Prolonged US-Iran conflict keeps energy prices high, potentially pushing inflation higher and affecting central bank policy.
Further deterioration in the goods trade balance could widen the current account deficit more than expected.
Data-centre investment may be lumpy, leading to volatile imports of ADP equipment.
If student numbers continue to fall, education exports could decline more sharply, impacting the services balance.
Excess computing power from data centres may not translate into higher services exports as quickly as hoped.

Corresponding source evidence

With no resolution to the US-Iran conflict in sight, energy prices remain high and volatile. · near-term
Higher oil prices have pushed goods inflation higher, however, there has been little to no second-round effects. · near-term
Central banks are maintaining tightening bias, however, it does not look like the energy price shock is going to bring significantly higher interest rates. · near-term

Conditions / invalidation

If the expansion of data centres leads to excess computing power.