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Key arguments

• FOMC minutes indicate inflation should drift back toward 2% following successive supply shocks.
• The minutes predate softer jobs and contained inflation reports, likely confirming 'wait-and-see' voters and shifting swing voters dovish.
• Several participants assessed tariff pass-through as largely complete, implying softer future inflation reports.
• The 2027 rotation of regional Fed bank voters is likely more dovish than current roster.

Corresponding source evidence

1. as the committee largely expects inflation to drift back toward 2% following “successive supply shocks” that delayed the disinflation process. · medium-term
2. The minutes also revealed that, “[s]everal participants assessed that the pass-through of past increases in tariffs into the level of prices was now largely complete”, implying that future inflation reports should soften in their views . · medium-term