Latam Weekly: Banxico and BCB, Peruvian and Chilean CPIGLOBAL ECONOMICS
中文标题
拉美周报：Banxico与BCB、秘鲁和智利CPI · 全球经济
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank expects Banxico to hold its overnight rate at 6.50% on November 5 and the BCB to leave the Selic at 13.75%, though a 25bp cut to 13.50% is arguable given still-restrictive policy. Peru's October Lima CPI is seen rising 0.2% m/m, lifting annual inflation to 4.9% from 4.5%. Chile's BCCh held but flagged rising inflation risks; a 25bp December hike is projected. The MXN neared a 19 handle on Banxico dovishness and risk aversion.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 10/30/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- next week · 2026
Key arguments
- Banxico is expected to hold at 6.50%, with its lingering dovishness weighing on the peso.
- The BCB will likely hold at 13.75% despite room for a 25bp cut, awaiting clarity on the fiscal path.
- Above-range services inflation and limited convergence to the 3% goal support an extended hold in Brazil.
- Chile's BCCh held but signalled significantly higher inflation risks, teeing up a projected 25bp December hike.
Key numbers
- Mexico overnight rate (expected)
- 6.50%
- Brazil Selic rate (expected)
- 13.75%
- Brazil Selic under a 25bp cut scenario
- 13.50%
- Peru Lima CPI y/y forecast (Oct)
- 4.9% (prior 4.5%)
- Peru Lima CPI m/m forecast (Oct)
- 0.2%
Main risks
- Services inflation staying above target range could delay any BCB easing.
- Mexico's dovish bias and global risk aversion could push the peso past the 19 handle.
- Fiscal trajectory uncertainty in Brazil could affect growth and inflation, complicating the rate path.
Corresponding source evidence
• There may be room for the BCB to consider a 25bps rate cut next week, as going from 13.75% to 13.50% would still leave the policy stance highly restrictive, but we think the BCB will err on the side of caution to get more clarity on the fiscal trajectory for how this may impact growth and inflation.
· next weekWhen measured by within target headline and core inflation, and some remaining economic slack, one could build a case.
But above range services inflation, limited signs of serious convergence to the 3% goal, and growing external risks call for an extended hold.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 10/30/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/30/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction