拉美周报：Banxico与BCB、秘鲁和智利CPI全球经济

关键论点

• 预计墨西哥央行将维持利率在6.50%，其持续偏鸽立场对墨西哥比索构成压力。
• 巴西央行可能维持利率在13.75%，尽管存在降息25个基点的空间，但仍在等待财政路径明朗。
• 服务业通胀高于目标区间、向3%目标收敛迹象有限，支持巴西央行延长按兵不动。
• 智利央行按兵不动，但发出通胀风险显著上升的信号，为预计12月加息25个基点铺路。

对应原文证据

1. • There may be room for the BCB to consider a 25bps rate cut next week, as going from 13.75% to 13.50% would still leave the policy stance highly restrictive, but we think the BCB will err on the side of caution to get more clarity on the fiscal trajectory for how this may impact growth and inflation. · next week
2. When measured by within target headline and core inflation, and some remaining economic slack, one could build a case.
3. But above range services inflation, limited signs of serious convergence to the 3% goal, and growing external risks call for an extended hold.