全球经济学 · 每日要点

关键论点

• 油价虽仅小幅上涨，但通胀担忧令长端债券收益率维持高位，并强化市场对各主要央行年底前约50个基点加息的定价。
• 加拿大8月成屋销售五个月来首次下滑（季调后环比-0.7%），可能是四连涨后的喘息；买家或因新屋税收优惠而转向激增的新屋销售。
• 中国经济依旧疲软：总投资年初至今下降7.2%，房地产投资下降约20%，因而有意投资海外；工业产出是少有的亮点，部分源于将过剩产能出口以维持工厂运转。
• 英国劳动力市场维持疲软，就业人数连续第七个月下降，工资增长波动，料难成为英央行政策决定因素，市场预期周四将按兵不动。

对应原文证据

1. Stocks are falling basically everywhere but not by much and on rate and inflation fears plus AI fears either having to do with concern about slowing momentum or the cheery news from AI researchers that all profits will go to zero by decade ’s end as the least of humanity ’s fate.
2. I view the list of projects that are a combination of being already in the works, reasonably expected and hypothetical wishes to be a downpayment on PM Carney ’s C$1 trillion investment goal over the next five years.
3. New listings were up by 3.3% m/m, the sales -to-new -listings ratio fell two full points to 49.1% and remains roughly in balanced territory, and months supply was unchanged at 4.8.