Our multi-asset investment views - October 2026

Key arguments

• Resilient US growth and earnings momentum justify a positive equity stance, with technology driving earnings and the Nasdaq used to express the US view.
• Higher yields reflect stronger nominal growth and are supportive of equities; a disorderly long-end sell-off would challenge this.
• Gold remains a hedge against central bank credibility and sovereign debt concerns, supported by central bank buying and investor inflows.
• The yen is upgraded to positive on attractive valuations, improving inflation dynamics and prospects for further policy normalisation.

Corresponding source evidence

1. The main risk to our forecasts is that longer-term bond yields rise more than expected.
2. A more disorderly sell-off at the longer end of yield curves would challenge this view, and the main risk to our forecasts is that longer-term bond yields rise more than expected, causing yield curves to steepen.
3. This could arise from concerns about central banks’ credibility when confronted with energy-induced inflation, or a flare-up in sovereign debt concerns, with France still looking vulnerable in that respect.