我们的多元资产投资观点 - 2026年10月

关键论点

• 美国增长具韧性、盈利动能延续，支持股票乐观立场；科技板块驱动盈利，以纳斯达克表达美股观点。
• 收益率上升反映名义增长更强，对股票构成支撑；但长端无序抛售将挑战这一判断。
• 黄金仍是对冲央行公信力与主权债务担忧的工具，受央行购金与投资者流入支撑。
• 日元上调至乐观，因估值具吸引力、通胀动态改善且有望进一步推动政策正常化。

对应原文证据

1. The main risk to our forecasts is that longer-term bond yields rise more than expected.
2. A more disorderly sell-off at the longer end of yield curves would challenge this view, and the main risk to our forecasts is that longer-term bond yields rise more than expected, causing yield curves to steepen.
3. This could arise from concerns about central banks’ credibility when confronted with energy-induced inflation, or a flare-up in sovereign debt concerns, with France still looking vulnerable in that respect.