OCBC Daily Credit Snapshot 26 October 2026

中文标题

OCBC 每日信用快照 2026年10月26日

OCBC Research10/26/2026updated 10/26/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Investor anxiety rose as US equities closed lower on Friday, with AI capex financing and neo-cloud models flagged as vulnerabilities; USTs cheapened 3-5bps led by the long end. Brent near USD115.81 after a USD117+ high on Hormuz disruption and Iran rhetoric. FOMC hold at 3.75%-4.00% fully priced; headline PCE seen at 3.6% y/y. OUECT's Salesforce Tower buy is viewed as credit neutral.

Institution: OCBC Research
Published: 10/26/2026
Research topic: Fed Policy · US 10Y Treasury · US Dollar (DXY)
Time horizon: June 2026 · year-end 2028 · October 2026

Fed Policy · FED US 10Y Treasury · US10Y US Dollar (DXY) · DXY Natural Gas · NATGAS

Key arguments

Escalating Iran rhetoric and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions, plus the Houthi offensive, keep oil risk premium elevated, with resumed US attacks not expected until after the 3 November mid-terms.
AI capex buildout, financing and the neo cloud business model are becoming sources of market vulnerability.
A hold at 3.75%-4.00% is fully priced; September PCE and 3Q26 GDP data hold equal relevance.
OUECT's purchase of an additional 50% of Salesforce Tower is viewed as a credit-neutral event.

Key numbers

Brent crude spot (last seen): USD115.81/bbl
FOMC rate range fully priced for hold: 3.75%-4.00%
September headline PCE forecast: 3.6% y/y (from 3.4%)
OUECT proforma aggregate leverage: 45.3%
Indonesia pipeline gas cut to Singapore: 31mmscfd (~2% of daily demand)

Main risks

Oil escalation risk: resumed US attacks on Iran and continued Hormuz disruption could push Brent higher.
Fiscal stress in France persists despite Moody's not downgrading on 23 October and peaceful union-only protests.
OUECT's 45.3% proforma leverage only mitigated by a SGD150mn perpetual (to 42.8%) or a potential One Raffles Place divestment.

Corresponding source evidence

President Trump told Fox News that “getting to be decision time” on a deal with Iran, or whether he will “finish it off.” Resumption o f US attacks are not expected until after the 3 November mid-term elections.
For FOMC, a hold at 3.75%-4.00% is fully priced, while incoming data releases will hold equal relevance with September PCE inflation expected to show headline inflation accelerating to 3.6% y/y from 3.4%, while core PCE is projected to edge up to 3.1% y/y from 3.0%.
Consensus pegs the advance estimates of US 3Q26 GDP growth at 3.0% annualised from 2.2% in 2Q26.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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