Finding Opportunities in an Uncertain World

中文标题

在不确定的世界中寻找机遇

Nomura Connects09/04/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Nomura discusses opportunities in a world reshaped by geopolitics, AI, and market shifts. Key themes include the geopolitical reversion to historical norms, investment opportunities in critical materials like rare earths amid supply disruptions, the evolution of AI value creation beyond foundation models toward moats like distribution and enterprise integration, and a selective, market-specific approach to asset allocation as public and private market valuations converge.

Institution: Nomura Connects
Published: 09/04/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Geopolitical competition and conflict risk are inherent characteristics of international relations, and the current period is a reversion to the historical norm, not an aberration.
Investors can find opportunities by analyzing micro-level geopolitical impacts, such as supply chain disruptions in critical materials like rare earths.
AI value creation is shifting from models to moats: distribution, platforms, enterprise integration, and governance layers.
Investors should take a localized, market-specific approach rather than a regional lens, with diversification across products, sectors, and markets essential.
Strong public market performance in some regions (e.g., Korea, Taiwan) is narrowing valuation gaps, raising questions about private market advantages.

Key numbers

China's share of global rare earth output (2025): 92.5%
Global rare earth output: 400,000 metric tons
KOSPI Composite Index return (YTD to June 12): up 99%
TWSE return (YTD to June 12): up 53%

Main risks

Geopolitical conflicts and trade policy tensions could escalate unpredictably.
Concentration risk in critical materials like rare earths due to single-country dominance.
AI value creation may not materialize as expected; models may commoditize faster than anticipated.
Market-specific approaches require accurate country and sector analysis; misallocation risk.
Narrowing valuation gaps may affect liquidity and returns in private markets.

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