欧洲增长韧性显现，对华贸易紧张局势升温外汇每日快照

关键论点

• 欧元在全球收益率上升及法国4/5月大选前财政担忧拖累下从1.1600跌至1.1200后趋于企稳。
• 成品油价格上涨构成贸易条件风险；天然气和柴油价格若进一步跳涨，可能打击欧洲经济。
• 欧洲韧性——德国增速预测上调及8月工业产出增长2.0%——支撑当前欧洲央行加息定价。
• 欧洲代表团正在中国讨论人民币问题，人民币实际有效汇率仍比2022年峰值低14.5%。

对应原文证据

1. Increased concerns over a terms of trade hit from rising refined energy prices has also played a role and any further notable jumps in natural gas and diesel prices would likely hurt the economies in Europe.
2. Still, we continue to see evidence of economic resilience in Europe that could help stabilise the euro at these lower levels.
3. Growth had been downgraded in response to the war but the new estimate for this year is above the 1.0% estimate at the start of the year underlining the level of resilience. · this year