我们到了吗？牛市或许还有更多路程

关键论点

• 信用压力集中于投机性、高杠杆的AI相关借款人，而非整个信用市场；高等级利差仍偏窄。
• CPI/PPI偏热未打断美债涨势，说明加息已被定价，长期通胀预期仍锚定。
• 杠杆叠加美联储紧缩通常令经济放缓，显示周期偏晚但未结束。
• 配置上偏好优质信用与防御性股票板块，并关注油市冲击缓解或债券上涨的迹象。

对应原文证据

1. Recent inflation data has been uncomfortably strong, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained relatively contained, and concerns about confidence in US assets may be limited.
2. Yields on some of its unsecured debt have climbed to roughly 15%, while the cost of insuring its debt against default has risen sharply.4 Since June, wider credit spreads have accounted for roughly half of the increase in high-yield borrowing costs.5 The rise may no longer simply be a rates story.
3. Importantly, longer-term inflation expectations have remained relatively contained.9 The recent rally in US Treasuries and resilience of the US dollar10 suggests to me concerns about confidence in US assets may be limited.