Macro · Macro Rapid Response A September ECB rate rise looks a ll b ut certain

中文标题

宏观 · 宏观快速反应：9月欧洲央行加息几乎板上钉钉

Intesa Sanpaolo09/03/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Intesa Sanpaolo expects the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at the September 2026 meeting, given persistent above-target inflation and energy shock risks. The bank sees the rate rise as likely the last in the cycle under its baseline scenario, with core inflation peaking at 2.6% in Q1 2027, though a further move to 2.75% cannot be ruled out if adverse scenarios materialize.

Institution: Intesa Sanpaolo
Published: 09/03/2026
Research topic: ECB · ECB monetary policy · Inflation
Time horizon: ongoing · 2027

Key arguments

ECB is expected to raise rates by 25bps in September, bringing deposit rate to 2.50%.
Inflation remains above target with risks linked to persistence of energy shock.
ECB will maintain data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach without forward guidance.
July minutes indicate further rate rise would be necessary barring significant improvement in inflation outlook.
Energy market normalization is now expected to be partial, with oil above $80 in H1 2027 and European gas above €40 next year.
Baseline scenario sees no significant pass-through to core prices, allowing September rise to be the last.
Uncertainty warrants caution; a third move to 2.75% cannot be ruled out if adverse scenarios materialize.

Key numbers

Expected September ECB rate hike: +25 bps
Deposit rate after hike: 2.50%
Possible terminal rate: 2.75%
August headline inflation: 3.3% YoY
August core inflation: 2.4% YoY
Core inflation peak (Q1 2027): 2.6%
Oil price assumption H1 2027: > $80/bbl
European gas price assumption next year: > €40/MWh

Main risks

A significant deterioration in the energy market outlook in 2027 could trigger additional rate hikes.
A sudden acceleration in pass-through of energy prices to core prices could force a more aggressive ECB.
Structural breaks in monetary policy rules make parameter estimates unreliable, leading to potential policy misjudgments.
The duration of the Gulf crisis remains uncertain, keeping energy prices elevated for longer.

Corresponding source evidence

We believe the ECB will continue to avoid providing genuine forward guidance , maintaining a meeting - by - meeting, data - driven approach, with communication cent e red on the reaction function · ongoing
A more prolonged period of energy tensions could make it more likely that the inflationary effects we are not currently observing will spread . · 2027

Conditions / invalidation

more prolonged period of energy tensions

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.