Turkish inflation continues to slide in august
中文标题
土耳其通胀在8月继续回落
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Turkish inflation continued its gradual decline in August 2026, with annual CPI easing to 31.5% from 31.8%, helped by benign food prices and a tightly managed lira. However, core and services inflation remain elevated, and oil price volatility poses key risks. The CBT is expected to hold rates at 37% in September.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/03/2026
- Research topic
- inflation · Turkey CPI · oil prices
- Time horizon
- near-term · medium-term · ongoing · 1-month
Key arguments
- Annual CPI fell to 31.5% in August from 31.8%, slightly below market consensus but still far above the CBT target of 24%.
- Core inflation (CPI-C) rose to 30.1% annually, indicating persistent underlying price pressures.
- Food inflation was benign due to a 2.0% MoM drop in unprocessed food prices, supporting the disinflation trend.
- Services inflation remains high at 40.3% YoY, reflecting inertia in this group.
- Oil price uncertainty is a key risk to both PPI and CPI, though resumption of Iran-US peace process could ease pressures.
Key numbers
- August CPI (MoM)
- 1.84%
- August CPI (YoY)
- 31.5%
- CBT target
- 24%
- CBT forecast
- 28%
- Core CPI (YoY)
- 30.1%
- PPI (YoY)
- 27.8%
- TRY depreciation (YoY)
- 16.9%
- Policy rate
- 37%
Main risks
- Oil price spikes due to geopolitical tensions could derail disinflation.
- Services inflation inertia may keep core inflation elevated.
- Further TRY depreciation could import inflation.
- Fiscal measures, such as tax changes on diesel, may have unintended effects.
Corresponding source evidence
Global commodity prices and particularly oil prices in the current geopolitical backdrop will remain the key risk factors to the PPI and CPI in the near term.
· near-termThe resumption of the Iran-US peace process, on the other hand, would calm geopolitical tensions and help oil prices return to prewar levels, which in turn would be supportive for the inflation outlook.
· medium-termThe managed currency by the central bank, with modest nominal TRY depreciation – by 1.6% in August on average and 16.9% YoY, significantly below inflation in the same period – limited the increase. This indicates that the CBT maintains its exchange rate policy, which continues to support the disinflation objective through the cost channel.
· ongoing
Conditions / invalidation
- Global commodity prices and particularly oil prices remain elevated due to geopolitical risks.
- The Iran-US peace process resumes and eases geopolitical tensions.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · WTI
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ING THINKTurkish inflation continues to slide in august | 09/03/2026 | Bullish | — | near-term |
| MUFGMiddle East Daily | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Scotiabank EconomicsGLOBAL ECONOMICS · DAILY POINTS | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Saxo BankCommodity weekly Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/03/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction