土耳其通胀在8月继续回落

关键论点

• 8月年度CPI从31.8%降至31.5%，略低于市场共识，但仍远高于央行24%的目标。
• 核心通胀（CPI-C）年率升至30.1%，表明潜在价格压力持续。
• 食品通胀温和，未加工食品价格环比下降2.0%，支撑了去通胀趋势。
• 服务业通胀年率仍高达40.3%，反映出该领域的粘性。
• 油价不确定性是PPI和CPI的关键风险，但伊朗-美国和平进程恢复可能缓解压力。

对应原文证据

1. Global commodity prices and particularly oil prices in the current geopolitical backdrop will remain the key risk factors to the PPI and CPI in the near term. · near-term
2. The resumption of the Iran-US peace process, on the other hand, would calm geopolitical tensions and help oil prices return to prewar levels, which in turn would be supportive for the inflation outlook. · medium-term
3. The managed currency by the central bank, with modest nominal TRY depreciation – by 1.6% in August on average and 16.9% YoY, significantly below inflation in the same period – limited the increase. This indicates that the CBT maintains its exchange rate policy, which continues to support the disinflation objective through the cost channel. · ongoing