Transport logistics resilience amid disruptions and cost inflation

中文标题

颠覆与成本通胀下运输物流业的韧性

ING THINK09/22/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Dutch transport and logistics is set for roughly 1% growth in 2026 and about 1.5% in 2027, with passenger transport and globally active shipping outperforming a contracting postal segment and a maturing parcel market. Cost inflation from fuel, wages, truck tolls and interest rates is the dominant theme, making pricing power crucial. Trade tensions, geopolitical disruption and climate events reshape flows while supporting freight rates and logistics demand.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/22/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2027 · 2019 · 2025 · year-end 2027 · 2026 · 2030

Key arguments

Growth is moderate and uneven: aviation and maritime shipping beat expectations in 2026, while postal volumes push the parcel/post segment into contraction.
Cost inflation (fuel, wages, truck toll, higher interest rates) is the dominant theme; passing costs to customers remains crucial for profitability.
Global trade defied the expected slowdown, growing near 5% in H1 2026 on Chinese exports, and longer routes from Red Sea, Black Sea, Hormuz and Panama disruptions support shipping demand.
Rising road transport bankruptcies and M&A reflect financial pressure, but levels are moderate by historical standards; logistics providers gain strategic value from supply chain uncertainty.

Key numbers

Dutch transport & logistics growth 2026: around 1%
Dutch transport & logistics growth 2027: around 1.5%
Global goods trade growth H1 2026: near 5%
Schiphol flights through July vs year earlier: approximately 4% fewer
Summer 2026 airfares vs year earlier: around 7.5% higher

Main risks

Cost inflation outpacing pricing power could further squeeze profitability, especially in road transport where bankruptcies already rose in H1 2026 and may rise further.
Geopolitical tensions, protectionism, tariffs and extreme weather disrupt supply chains, create port congestion and empty-container imbalances.
Capacity constraints at Schiphol (near roughly 478,000 flights annually) and Rotterdam terminals, plus delayed Lelystad opening and rail works, limit growth.

Corresponding source evidence

Mixed outlook for transport and logistics, with slightly stronger growth in 2027 Expected volume growth of transport and logistics subsectors, % year-on-year Source: CBS, ING Research Slightly stronger growth expected in 2027 Sector growth is expected to accelerate modestly to around 1.5% in 2027, supported by a recovery in construction and gradual improvement in the German economy. · 2027
Passenger Transport Public transport volume with summer push (temporarily) back above covid level Number of public transport check-ins per month in The Netherlands (2019=100) Source: Translink, ING Research Public transport recovery exceeds expectations Supported by the government's summer travel subscription initiative, public transport usage temporarily exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the first time. · 2019
Rail punctuality has improved, although infrastructure projects and a cumulative 13% rise in ticket prices since early 2025 continue to create headwinds. · 2025

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

Verify at the original source ↗

Download institution PDF