颠覆与成本通胀下运输物流业的韧性

关键论点

• 增长温和且分化：2026年航空和全球航运表现超预期，而邮政量下滑拖累包裹/邮政板块陷入收缩。
• 成本通胀（燃油、工资、卡车通行费、利率上升）是主导主题；能否向客户转嫁成本对盈利能力至关重要。
• 全球贸易未如预期放缓，2026年上半年在出口带动下增长近5%；红海、黑海、霍尔木兹和巴拿马运河扰动拉长航线，支撑航运需求。
• 公路运输破产上升和并购活跃反映财务压力，但按历史标准仍属温和；供应链不确定性提升物流服务商战略价值。

对应原文证据

1. Mixed outlook for transport and logistics, with slightly stronger growth in 2027 Expected volume growth of transport and logistics subsectors, % year-on-year Source: CBS, ING Research Slightly stronger growth expected in 2027 Sector growth is expected to accelerate modestly to around 1.5% in 2027, supported by a recovery in construction and gradual improvement in the German economy. · 2027
2. Passenger Transport Public transport volume with summer push (temporarily) back above covid level Number of public transport check-ins per month in The Netherlands (2019=100) Source: Translink, ING Research Public transport recovery exceeds expectations Supported by the government's summer travel subscription initiative, public transport usage temporarily exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the first time. · 2019
3. Rail punctuality has improved, although infrastructure projects and a cumulative 13% rise in ticket prices since early 2025 continue to create headwinds. · 2025