The Commodities Feed: Oil prices up even as Hormuz flows increase

中文标题

大宗商品动态：尽管霍尔木兹海峡流量增加，油价仍上涨

ING THINK08/28/2026updated 10/17/2026

Unknown economy

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Oil prices rose as US-Iran talks stalled, while Hormuz flows show tentative recovery. OPEC faces potential Venezuela exit. European gas prices jumped on fading talks hopes amid tight storage. Zinc remains supported by tight fundamentals despite easing from highs. Wheat rally extends on Russia-Ukraine disruptions; EU sugar production forecast to drop sharply.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 08/28/2026
Research topic: Geopolitical tensions · WTI · OPEC dynamics
Time horizon: short-term · medium-term

WTI · WTI NATGAS · NATGAS

Key arguments

Oil prices rose 2.1% as renewed US-Iran talks prospects diminished, with the US not returning to the June MoU terms.
Hormuz oil flows may be higher than assumed at 6-8 million b/d as producers adapt to the conflict.
Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC as US relations improve, which would reduce OPEC's influence.
European gas prices jumped 3.8% on fading US/Iran talks hopes, with storage tight and below target.
Zinc fundamentals remain supportive with nearby spreads at widest premium since December; supply constraints persist.
Wheat prices extended rally for fourth day on Russia-Ukraine conflict fears, with exports from the region at risk.
EU sugar production forecast to decline 19% YoY due to lower yields and plantings.

Key numbers

Brent settlement change: +2.1%
Assumed Hormuz oil flows: 5m b/d
Potential higher Hormuz flows: 6-8m b/d
TTF settlement change: +3.8%
Zinc nearby spread vs 3-month: $200/t (widest since Dec, >$190/t Thursday)
Wheat rally sessions: fourth consecutive session
EU sugar production forecast: 13.4mt, -19% YoY
EU sugar yield forecast: 72.2t/ha, -11.5% YoY

Main risks

Renewed US-Iran talks could resume, easing geopolitical risks and pressuring oil and gas prices.
Higher Hormuz flows could accelerate normalization, increasing oil supply and lowering prices.
Venezuela's exit from OPEC could impact production quotas and market sentiment.
Zinc supply could improve if mine output recovers or smelter economics improve, easing tightness.
Wheat supply disruptions could ease if the Russia-Ukraine conflict de-escalates, reducing price support.
EU sugar production could recover if yields improve or plantings increase, softening the decline.

Corresponding source evidence

The renewed strength comes after reports that President Trump told mediators the US has no intention of returning to the terms of the June Memorandum of Understanding. · short-term
Venezuela is considering leaving the group as relations with the US improve following the ousting of Nicolas Maduro at the start of the year. · medium-term
European gas prices also jumped yesterday as hopes of a resumption in US/Iran talks faded. TTF settled 3.8% higher on the day. · short-term

Conditions / invalidation

if Venezuela indeed leaves the group

Institution / report	Published	Direction	Source-checked target	Horizon
ING THINKThe Commodities Feed: Oil prices up even as Hormuz flows increase	08/28/2026	Bullish	—	Not stated
Saxo BankMarket Quick Take - Chipmakers extend their slide as Brent holds above 107	10/19/2026	Neutral	—	Not stated
MUFGMiddle East Daily	10/16/2026	Bullish	—	Not stated
Scotiabank EconomicsGLOBAL ECONOMICS · DAILY POINTS	10/16/2026	Bullish	—	Not stated