大宗商品动态：尽管霍尔木兹海峡流量增加，油价仍上涨

关键论点

• 由于美伊谈判前景减弱，美国不回到六月备忘录条款，油价上涨2.1%。
• 随着生产商适应冲突，霍尔木兹海峡石油流量可能高于此前假设的6-8百万桶/日。
• 随着与美国关系改善，委内瑞拉考虑退出OPEC，这将削弱OPEC的影响力。
• 由于美伊谈判希望减弱，欧洲天然气价格上涨3.8%，库存紧张且低于目标。
• 锌基本面依然强劲，近月价差创下12月以来最阔溢价；供应受限持续。
• 因俄乌冲突担忧，小麦价格连续第四日上涨，该地区出口面临风险。
• 由于单产和种植面积下降，欧盟糖产量预计同比下降19%。

对应原文证据

1. The renewed strength comes after reports that President Trump told mediators the US has no intention of returning to the terms of the June Memorandum of Understanding. · short-term
2. Venezuela is considering leaving the group as relations with the US improve following the ousting of Nicolas Maduro at the start of the year. · medium-term
3. European gas prices also jumped yesterday as hopes of a resumption in US/Iran talks faded. TTF settled 3.8% higher on the day. · short-term