波兰7月经常账户余额趋于稳定，中国成为最大进口来源国

关键论点

• 7月经常账户赤字从6月的22亿欧元扩大至24亿欧元，主要因货物贸易赤字扩大及服务顺差意外下降。
• 12个月滚动赤字稳定在GDP的1.1%，贸易赤字从GDP的1.4%扩大至1.5%。
• 中国首次成为波兰最大货物供应国，超过德国。
• 能源价格上涨预计将进一步扩大外部缺口，2026年GDP的1.6%预测风险略偏上行，但失衡规模较小，不会显著影响兹罗提。

对应原文证据

1. It is to widen further in the remaining months on the back of higher energy imports and a larger trade gap with China Warsaw, Poland The current account deficit was slightly wider in July (€2.4bn) than in June (€2.2bn), close to the consensus estimate (€2.1bn) and our forecast (€1.9bn).
2. The traditional surplus in services trade was €2,722m, although this was significantly lower than a month earlier (€3,900m).
3. Saudi Arabia had used this route to bypass the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and transport around 7m barrels of oil per day, so the development could lead to higher oil prices and even supply shortages.