匈牙利国家银行前瞻：不要对降息完全失去希望

关键论点

• 预计将暂时暂停降息：尽管通胀形势有利，匈央行仍可能在9月21日将利率维持在5.50%。
• 通胀目标预计在两阶段内从3%下调至2%，削弱了近期降息的理由。
• ING预测到2026年底前再降息两次、每次25个基点，但称该观点具有高度推测性。
• 更鹰派的匈央行与更低通胀目标应令曲线趋平并支撑福林，但持续上涨需要全球能源价格缓解。

对应原文证据

1. During this period, central bank representatives repeatedly stated that the decision on whether to continue cutting rates would be made in light of the September Inflation Report.
2. Although inflation continues to develop favourably, we believe that, given the expected announcement of a reduction in the inflation target and geopolitical risks, the Monetary Council will keep the base rate at 5.50% in its decision on 21 September to maintain tight monetary policy.
3. We think that, when the time comes, the central bank will present a trajectory of inflation affected by geopolitical developments.