Chinas strong trade growth continued into august

中文标题

中国强劲的贸易增长延续至8月

ING THINK09/08/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

China's exports grew 25.0% YoY in August 2026, up from 23.9% in July, driven by strong tech demand, while imports rose 28.2% YoY. The trade surplus reached $119.1bn, the fourth consecutive month above $100bn, and the year-to-date surplus is up 3.1% YoY. Imports of hi-tech products and semiconductors surged, indicating continued investment in the tech race. Exports to the US are recovering, but concerns remain about tariff risks and the durability of the tech cycle.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/08/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI)
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI

Key arguments

Export growth accelerated to 25.0% YoY in August, driven by strong demand for tech goods.
Imports also grew strongly at 28.2% YoY, with tech-related imports surging, indicating continued investment in the tech race.
The trade surplus remains at record highs, potentially intensifying trade tensions.
The K-shaped divergence between external and domestic demand persists, with external demand outpacing domestic demand.
Exports to the US are recovering, narrowing the gap with other major markets.

Key numbers

August export growth: 25.0% YoY
August import growth: 28.2% YoY
Year-to-date export growth: 19.3% YoY to $2.92tn
August trade surplus: $119.1bn
Semiconductor export growth: 129.8% YoY
Automatic data processing machine export growth: 76.5% YoY
Hi-tech product import growth: 68.7% YoY
Semiconductor import growth: 83.6% YoY

Main risks

Tariff risks and potential trade tensions could weigh on future export growth.
The durability of the tech investment cycle is uncertain.
Domestic demand remains weak, creating a K-shaped recovery that may be unsustainable.
Rising trade surplus may provoke retaliatory measures from trading partners.

Corresponding source evidence

Export growth to the US starting to bridge the gap Imports come in a little softer than expected Import growth also picked up slightly in August to 28.2% YoY from a revised 27.6% in July.
That said, crude oil imports by volume remain well in contraction territory at -23.4% YoY in August.
Net exports contributed around 0.8pp to China's GDP growth in the first half of the year, and this could pick up in the third quarter.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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