中国强劲的贸易增长延续至8月

关键论点

• 8月出口增长加速至同比增长25.0%，受科技产品强劲需求推动。
• 进口也强劲增长，同比增长28.2%，科技相关进口激增，表明科技竞赛投资持续。
• 贸易顺差保持在创纪录高位，可能加剧贸易紧张局势。
• 外需与内需之间的K型分化持续，外需增长超过内需。
• 对美出口正在回升，与其他主要市场的差距缩小。

对应原文证据

1. Export growth to the US starting to bridge the gap Imports come in a little softer than expected Import growth also picked up slightly in August to 28.2% YoY from a revised 27.6% in July.
2. That said, crude oil imports by volume remain well in contraction territory at -23.4% YoY in August.
3. Net exports contributed around 0.8pp to China's GDP growth in the first half of the year, and this could pick up in the third quarter.