Cee cca week ahead 18 sep
中文标题
中东欧与中欧及高加索地区一周前瞻 18 9月
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ING previews the CEE/CCA week: Polish August wage growth likely eased but stayed above 6% YoY, with employment falling 0.8% YoY and construction rebounding after July's disappointment. August retail sales of goods are seen around 5% YoY, helped by a temporary fuel VAT cut. Czech September consumer confidence likely stabilised while industry sentiment softened. Azerbaijan's central bank is expected to hold its refinancing rate at 6.50%.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/18/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- Polish August wage growth probably eased from July's one-off-boosted reading but remained above 6% YoY, with the downward trend set to continue.
- Polish construction output should rebound solidly in August after July's annual decline, helped by NRP-financed projects and fixed investment; residential construction stays the weak spot.
- Czech consumer confidence likely stabilised after its previous notable drop, though rising prices may pressure mood around the turn of the year.
- The Central Bank of Azerbaijan is expected to leave its refinancing rate at 6.50%, with commentary shifting more risk-focused and hawkish guidance not excluded.
Key numbers
- Poland August wage growth (ING estimate)
- above 6% YoY
- Poland enterprise employment decline
- 0.8% YoY, pace unchanged
- Poland 2Q26 fixed investment growth
- 8.4% YoY
- Poland August retail sales of goods (ING estimate)
- around 5% YoY
- Azerbaijan refinancing rate / CPI / target
- 6.50% / 5.6-5.8% / 4±2%
Main risks
- Czech consumer and industry mood could come under pressure at the turn of the year as consumer prices rise.
- Surging oil prices and Middle East re-escalation uncertainty may offset new-order inflows for Czech industry.
- Azerbaijan's central bank could turn more hawkish than expected, given upward global and regional inflation and rates.
Corresponding source evidence
In July, wage growth was boosted by one-off payments in some sectors (energy, forestry), and we estimate that earnings growth eased in August but probably remained above 6% year-on-year, supported by the ongoing recovery in industry and a favourable calendar effect.
The general downward trend in wage growth is likely to continue in the coming months, and domestic price pressures remain contained even as headline CPI rises on the back of the energy shock.
The pace of the decline in enterprise sector employment was probably unchanged, remaining at 0.8% YoY.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/18/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction